315
FXUS62 KILM 301820
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
220 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED. CHANCE FOR SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION OFF THE COAST HAS LOWERED TO NEAR 0%.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LIKELY NEAR RECORD LEVELS INLAND.
2) NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, LIKELY NEAR RECORD LEVELS INLAND.
MID-UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK AND BECOME ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
(WITH 700MB, 500MB, AND 200MB HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE THE 99.5TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT THEN
SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK AND GRADUALLY MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY INLAND, WHERE THEY COULD BE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER HIGH AND DEEP-
LAYER FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND,
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA, LEADING TO VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO OFFER RELIEF FROM THE HEAT DURING THE WORK WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS, THE DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN EACH AFTERNOON WILL
HELP TO LOWER DEW POINTS AND KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES VERY NEAR
THE AIR TEMPERATURES, EXCEPT AROUND THE SEA BREEZE, WHERE OCEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S WILL LOCALLY RAISE DEW POINTS
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES, EVEN IF TEMPERATURES FALL SLIGHTLY BEHIND
IT. THE SPECIFICS ON WHEN AND WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105-109F FOR 2+ HOURS) ARE HARD TO PIN
DOWN AS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED
IN THE COMING DAYS, BUT UNFORTUNATELY, IT APPEARS THE HOTTEST
PERIOD WILL COINCIDE WITH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD FOR THE DANGEROUSLY HOT
CONDITIONS AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. CHECK OUT OUR HEAT PAGE
(WEATHER.GOV/ILM/HEAT) FOR THE LATEST HEAT FORECAST/SAFETY INFO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MID WEEK.
THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
PROSPECTS FOR ANY WEAK SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST
VERY LOW (NEAR 0%) AND HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS
MORNING STRATUS/CUMULUS HAVE LIFTED ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS GOING CALM AT THE WELL-INLAND TERMINALS.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR FOG FORMATION, SHALLOW
GROUND FOG OR PATCHY LOW STRATUS CARRIES MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT
KFLO AND KLBT GIVEN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED DEVELOP IN THE MORNING, WHICH
FEATURES LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AT OR BELOW MVFR
LEVELS UNTIL CLOUD BASES LIFT HIGH ENOUGH AROUND MIDDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST... MOSTLY VFR WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
MARINE
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS TO
SUBSIDE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. AS A THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS WEEK, EXPECT WINDS TO VEER
FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH RANGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING INTO THE 1-3 FT RANGE. IN ADDITION, AS
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY, EXPECT
STRONGER SEA BREEZES WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED NEARSHORE ENHANCEMENT TO
THE WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD
LEVELS LATER THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
THE RECORDS FOR JULY 3-5...
FRIDAY, JULY 3:
KILM: 97 / 1954
KLBT: 100 / 2019
KCRE: 95 / 1998
KFLO: 102 / 1954
SATURDAY, JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
SUNDAY, JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...RJB/ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/ABW
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