743
FXUS62 KILM 011825
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
225 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED. UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR DANGEROUS HEAT
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY.
AS WE HEAT UP UNDER RIDGE ALOFT, THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS RIGHT NOW WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASINGLY
RICHER DEWPOINT AIR LEADING TO INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK AROUND 596 DAM OVER INLAND CAROLINAS ON FRI DROPPING DOWN
TO 592 DAM BY LATE SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING MID
90S TO NEAR 100 INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEGINNING ON FRI.
ALTHOUGH THE MAX HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE REACHED ON FRI, THE SFC
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING RICHER DEWPOINT
AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS HIGHER AND
THEREFORE KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HIGHER AFTER A WARM START TO THE
DAY. OVERALL, EXPECT DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND OVER
MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS UPPER RIDGE PROVIDES
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO LIMITED, IF ANY CLOUDS AND
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF A SHOWER UNTIL SUNDAY AND MOST LIKELY NOT
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN RIDGE WEAKENS. LOOKING AT THE PCP WATER
VALUES, YOU CAN SEE THE DRY AIR NUDGING IN FROM THE EAST AND NOT
REALLY REACHING UP TO ANY SUBSTANTIAL LEVELS UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES SHAPE UP THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT HEAT INDICES THOUGH, EVERYONE IS
ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY
HOT CONDITIONS AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ABUNDANCE OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. YOU CAN
VISIT OUR HEAT WEBPAGE (WEATHER.GOV/ILM/HEAT) FOR THE LATEST
HEAT FORECAST/SAFETY INFO TO HELP YOU PLAN AND STAY SAFE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FM GROUPS ADDRESSING SLIGHT
INCREASE AND VEERING OF WINDS WITH AFTN/EARLY EVE SEA BREEZE AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BACKING OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAND BREEZE, MAINLY
OVER COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERALL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE E-SE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MOSTLY VFR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
KEEPING RAIN COVERAGE VERY MINIMAL. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY COME FROM LOW CLOUDS/FOG EACH LATE
NIGHT/MORNING.
MARINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MORE EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH/LOW TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REGAINS CONTROL. EXPECT STRONGER SEA BREEZES STARTING LATE WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. PERSISTENT AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS HIGHER SUN THROUGH MON.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD
LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW ARE THE DAILY RECORDS
FOR JULY 3-7...
FRIDAY, JULY 3:
KILM: 97 / 1954
KLBT: 100 / 2019
KCRE: 95 / 1998
KFLO: 102 / 1954
SATURDAY, JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
SUNDAY, JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
MONDAY, JULY 6:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 102 / 2024
KCRE: 101 / 1990
KFLO: 103 / 2024
TUESDAY, JULY 7:
KILM: 102 / 1977
KLBT: 102 / 2010
KCRE: 99 / 1953
KFLO: 104 / 1954
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ108.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ
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