462
FXUS62 KILM 020036
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
836 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED WITH 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
FOR THURSDAY...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR PENDER/NEW HANOVER
AND GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES. TWO TO AN OCCASIONALLY 3 FOOT
EASTERLY SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY. EAST TO SE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
FURTHER AID THE AREAS AFFECTED BY THE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
BEST RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR WITHIN A 6 HOUR PERIOD
CENTERED AROUND LOW TIDE, WHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND 330 PM
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY.
AS WE HEAT UP UNDER RIDGE ALOFT, THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS RIGHT NOW WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASINGLY
RICHER DEWPOINT AIR LEADING TO INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK AROUND 596 DAM OVER INLAND CAROLINAS ON FRI DROPPING DOWN
TO 592 DAM BY LATE SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING MID
90S TO NEAR 100 INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEGINNING ON FRI.
ALTHOUGH THE MAX HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE REACHED ON FRI, THE SFC
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING RICHER DEWPOINT
AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS HIGHER AND
THEREFORE KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HIGHER AFTER A WARM START TO THE
DAY. OVERALL, EXPECT DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND OVER
MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS UPPER RIDGE PROVIDES
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO LIMITED, IF ANY CLOUDS AND
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF A SHOWER UNTIL SUNDAY AND MOST LIKELY NOT
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN RIDGE WEAKENS. LOOKING AT THE PCP WATER
VALUES, YOU CAN SEE THE DRY AIR NUDGING IN FROM THE EAST AND NOT
REALLY REACHING UP TO ANY SUBSTANTIAL LEVELS UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES SHAPE UP THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT HEAT INDICES THOUGH, EVERYONE IS
ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY
HOT CONDITIONS AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ABUNDANCE OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. YOU CAN
VISIT OUR HEAT WEBPAGE (WEATHER.GOV/ILM/HEAT) FOR THE LATEST
HEAT FORECAST/SAFETY INFO TO HELP YOU PLAN AND STAY SAFE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRUOUT THE 24 HR TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU FIELD THU WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A MOISTURE
DEFICIENCY AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND WEST OF THE INLAND
PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE. WINDS TO DROP TO AOB 4 KT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. WILL IDENTIFY A COMMON DIRECTION IN LEW OF GOING
VARIABLE. MAY SEE A BRIEF LAND BREEZE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY THU BUT E TO SE WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL BY MIDDAY THU
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST
MAINLY VFR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RAIN COVERAGE TO REMAIN NULL THRU SUN THEN
INCREASE TO ISOLATED BY MON. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM LOW CLOUDS/FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/MORNING
COMMENCING FRI NIGHT.
MARINE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MORE EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH/LOW TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS INLAND AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REGAINS CONTROL. EXPECT STRONGER SEA BREEZES STARTING LATE WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. PERSISTENT AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS HIGHER SUN THROUGH MON.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD
LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW ARE THE DAILY RECORDS
FOR JULY 3-7...
FRIDAY, JULY 3:
KILM: 97 / 1954
KLBT: 100 / 2019
KCRE: 95 / 1998
KFLO: 102 / 1954
SATURDAY, JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
SUNDAY, JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
MONDAY, JULY 6:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 102 / 2024
KCRE: 101 / 1990
KFLO: 103 / 2024
TUESDAY, JULY 7:
KILM: 102 / 1977
KLBT: 102 / 2010
KCRE: 99 / 1953
KFLO: 104 / 1954
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RGZ
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