918
FXUS62 KILM 021021
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
619 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY.
AS WE HEAT UP UNDER RIDGE ALOFT, THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS RIGHT NOW WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASINGLY
RICHER DEWPOINT AIR LEADING TO INCREASING HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE WEEKEND. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
PEAK AROUND 596 DAM OVER INLAND CAROLINAS ON FRI DROPPING DOWN
TO 592 DAM BY LATE SAT. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REACHING MID
90S TO NEAR 100 INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST BEGINNING ON FRI.
ALTHOUGH THE MAX HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE REACHED ON FRI, THE SFC
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING RICHER DEWPOINT
AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS HIGHER AND
THEREFORE KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS HIGHER AFTER A WARM START TO THE
DAY. OVERALL, EXPECT DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND OVER
MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS UPPER RIDGE PROVIDES
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO LIMITED, IF ANY CLOUDS AND
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF A SHOWER UNTIL SUNDAY AND MOST LIKELY NOT
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN RIDGE WEAKENS. LOOKING AT THE PCP WATER
VALUES, YOU CAN SEE THE DRY AIR NUDGING IN FROM THE EAST AND NOT
REALLY REACHING UP TO ANY SUBSTANTIAL LEVELS UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES SHAPE UP THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT HEAT INDICES THOUGH, EVERYONE IS
ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY
HOT CONDITIONS AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ABUNDANCE OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. YOU CAN
VISIT OUR HEAT WEBPAGE (WEATHER.GOV/ILM/HEAT) FOR THE LATEST
HEAT FORECAST/SAFETY INFO TO HELP YOU PLAN AND STAY SAFE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL SEE THE SOUTHEAST WIND
DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z WHILE FLO/LBT WILL SEE WINDS SWITCH TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 21Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS
FROM FOG/LOW CEILINGS STARTING SUN MORNING.
MARINE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH TODAY AND FRI WILL INDUCE LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW EACH MORNING. BY MIDDAY INLAND HEATING WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OVERPOWERING THE
SYNOPTIC NORTHERLY FLOW. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN SETTING UP.
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS INLAND HEAT RAMPS UP. SPEEDS ON
THE LOW END OF THE 10-15KT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING INCREASE TO
15-20KT SUN/MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT TODAY DROP CLOSER TO
2 FT FRI/SAT BEFORE WINDS START GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD
LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW ARE THE DAILY RECORDS
FOR JULY 3-7...
FRIDAY, JULY 3:
KILM: 97 / 1954
KLBT: 100 / 2019
KCRE: 95 / 1998
KFLO: 102 / 1954
SATURDAY, JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
SUNDAY, JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
MONDAY, JULY 6:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 102 / 2024
KCRE: 101 / 1990
KFLO: 103 / 2024
TUESDAY, JULY 7:
KILM: 102 / 1977
KLBT: 102 / 2010
KCRE: 99 / 1953
KFLO: 104 / 1954
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...MBB/III
MARINE...III
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