010
FXUS62 KILM 021839
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
239 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST NC AND A LARGE
PORTION OF NORTHEAST SC. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A LARGE H5 RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS ALONG WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S AT TIMES. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105F FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NC AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST NC ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE COASTAL ZONES AIDED BY RELATIVELY COOLER
OCEAN AIR, AND THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWER.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINING ZONES DURING SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE HEAT INDEX
COULD APPROACH 110F DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME CHANCE THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME RELIEF DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THIS WOULD
ALLOWING IMPULSES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA - POTENTIALLY PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. UNTIL
THEN, PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED GIVEN THE DOME IN
PLACE AND SUBSEQUENT VERY DRY COLUMN, ESPECIALLY ABOVE H85.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME BRIEF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST,
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT SELY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS THE SEABREEZE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER
INLAND. LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/LOW CEILINGS STARTING SUN MORNING.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM ESE OF CAPE FEAR WHILE A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEEK
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SSWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A
NOTCH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, AND AROUND 3 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER SWLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS, AND LESSEN THE DOMINANT
WAVE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD
LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW ARE THE DAILY RECORDS
FOR JULY 3-7...
FRIDAY, JULY 3:
KILM: 97 / 1954
KLBT: 100 / 2019
KCRE: 95 / 1998
KFLO: 102 / 1954
SATURDAY, JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
SUNDAY, JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
MONDAY, JULY 6:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 102 / 2024
KCRE: 101 / 1990
KFLO: 103 / 2024
TUESDAY, JULY 7:
KILM: 102 / 1977
KLBT: 102 / 2010
KCRE: 99 / 1953
KFLO: 104 / 1954
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
SCZ017-024-033-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...SRP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page