315
FXUS62 KILM 022352
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAISED A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR PENDER/NEW HANOVER
COUNTY BEACHES ONLY FOR FRIDAY. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK
ELSEWHERE.
BASED ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS RIP RESCUE TALLY AND THE
CONTINUED E-ESE SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS. ALTHOUGH IN
GENERAL, THIS SWELL DEGRADES ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT COME FRI. AT
THIS POINT, THIS PLACED THE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
BORDERLINE. BUT, GIVEN THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY INFLUX OF PEOPLE
TO THE AREA BEACHES. PLACED THIS VARIABLE INTO OUR RIP
CURRENT THREAT EQUATION...AND THE RESULTS FAVORED THE
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE 2 COUNTIES FRI.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
PREVIOUS...
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST NC AND A LARGE
PORTION OF NORTHEAST SC. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A LARGE H5 RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS ALONG WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
SUPPORTING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S AT TIMES. THIS SETUP
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105F FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NC AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST NC ON FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE COASTAL ZONES AIDED BY
RELATIVELY COOLER OCEAN AIR, AND THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINING ZONES DURING SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE HEAT INDEX
COULD APPROACH 110F DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME RELIEF DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THIS WOULD
ALLOWING IMPULSES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA - POTENTIALLY PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. UNTIL
THEN, PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED GIVEN THE DOME IN
PLACE AND SUBSEQUENT VERY DRY COLUMN, ESPECIALLY ABOVE H85.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY 4SM TO 6SM GROUND FOG WITH LATEST GFSLAMP
GUIDANCE ADVERTISING THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHING AND WIDESPREAD CU CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY LIGHT
SE TO S WINDS WILL PREVAIL DROPPING TO AOB 4 KT BY 04Z. COULD
OBSERVE A WEAK LAND BREEZE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE (WILL IDENTIFY A COMMON DIRECTION)
WILL DOMINATE FRI DAYTIME MORNING THEN GIVE WAY TO THE
MESOSCALE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AFFECTING COASTAL TERMINALS BY
MIDDAY AND AGAIN REACHING THE INLAND TERMINALS LATE FRI AFTN OR
EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/LOW CEILINGS STARTING SUN MORNING. THREAT
FOR AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION RISES MON THRU TUE.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM ESE OF CAPE FEAR WHILE A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEEK
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SSWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A
NOTCH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, AND AROUND 3 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. A STRONGER SWLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS, AND LESSEN THE DOMINANT
WAVE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW ARE
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR JULY 3-7...
FRIDAY, JULY 3:
KILM: 97 / 1954
KLBT: 100 / 2019
KCRE: 95 / 1998
KFLO: 102 / 1954
SATURDAY, JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
SUNDAY, JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
MONDAY, JULY 6:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 102 / 2024
KCRE: 101 / 1990
KFLO: 103 / 2024
TUESDAY, JULY 7:
KILM: 102 / 1977
KLBT: 102 / 2010
KCRE: 99 / 1953
KFLO: 104 / 1954
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105-107-109.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ017-024-033-
058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SRP
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