362
FXUS62 KILM 031801
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
201 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SC AND
SOUTHEAST NC THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS PERSISTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HOT AND STEAMY CONDITIONS BENEATH THE RIDGE BRING
DANGEROUS HEAT DURING A BUSY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL
BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SC AND MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN NC.
THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY (WITH THE SAME FOOTPRINT) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY'S HOLIDAY. COASTAL ZONES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA REMAIN THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORIES.
RIDGING WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
DECREASE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES, BUT DEW POINTS INCREASE AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD DENT THE REMNANTS OF
THE RIDGE. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL, WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW CROSSING THE AREA. THE WEAKENED RIDGE WOULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. ILM HANGS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AIDED BY WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES SHOULD RETURN NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT WITH REDUCED
COVERAGE; DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMALL
CHANCE OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT COASTAL TERMINALS ON SATURDAY
MORNING. ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE MVFR AND CONFINED TO A
SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/LOW CEILINGS STARTING SUNDAY MORNING.
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS RETURNS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
MARINE
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE WINDS AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY, BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD LEADING TO
A LOCAL GRADIENT INCREASE. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER,
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES. SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND START TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, PEAKING AROUND 3-4 FEET ON TUESDAY IN THE EXTENDING SW
FETCH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE
PROLONGED FETCH KEEPS AN ELEVATED WIND WAVE.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW ARE
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR JULY 3-7...
SATURDAY, JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
SUNDAY, JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
MONDAY, JULY 6:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 102 / 2024
KCRE: 101 / 1990
KFLO: 103 / 2024
TUESDAY, JULY 7:
KILM: 102 / 1977
KLBT: 102 / 2010
KCRE: 99 / 1953
KFLO: 104 / 1954
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105-107-109.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105-107-109.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-024-033-
058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-024-
033-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...ILM
MARINE...ILM
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