292
FXUS62 KILM 042356
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
756 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY HAS ENDED. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, EAST OF I-95, ON SUNDAY FOR
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105F. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED WITH 0Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES ON SUNDAY, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD AND IS DAMPENED BY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A DECREASE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER, SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD. SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION
FORCES A PROPORTIONAL INCREASE IN DEW POINTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASED HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE EVIDENT AT
THE COAST AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES (PLUS COLUMBUS (NC) AND BLADEN (NC)) WHERE HEAT
INDICES JUST ABOVE 105 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
DAMPENED RIDGE COULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO RETURN TO OUR
INLAND AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AREAS WEST OF US-52 IN SC.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD DENT THE REMNANTS OF THE RIDGE. THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL, WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
CROSSING THE AREA. THE WEAKENED RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, HOLDING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND ENHANCED BY
WEAK WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES SHOULD
RETURN NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT WITH REDUCED COVERAGE; DEVELOPMENT WILL
FAVOR THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING MORE
ACTIVE AROUND MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHALLOW GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY
RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE BRIEF. LIGHT S WINDS OVERNIGHT. 5-10 KT S
WINDS SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/LOW CEILINGS EACH MORNING. THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS RETURNS MONDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY, UP TO 15 KNOTS
SUSTAINED NEAR THE COAST. A MORE DEFINED GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WINDS 15-20 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS.
WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL A WEAK FRONT. SEAS
AROUND 2 FEET TOMORROW WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN A
PERSISTENT WIND FIELD. SEAS PEAK AROUND 3-4 FEET ON TUESDAY IN
THE EXTENDING SW FETCH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE PROLONGED FETCH KEEPS AN ELEVATED WIND WAVE.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW ARE
THE DAILY RECORDS FOR JULY 4-7...
SATURDAY, JULY 4:
KILM: 100 / 1993
KLBT: 101 / 1905
KCRE: 97 / 1942
KFLO: 102 / 1993
SUNDAY, JULY 5:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 103 / 2024
KCRE: 97 / 1996
KFLO: 103 / 2024
MONDAY, JULY 6:
KILM: 100 / 1902
KLBT: 102 / 2024
KCRE: 101 / 1990
KFLO: 103 / 2024
TUESDAY, JULY 7:
KILM: 102 / 1977
KLBT: 102 / 2010
KCRE: 99 / 1953
KFLO: 104 / 1954
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ096-099-105-
107-109.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ054>056-058-
059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...ILM
MARINE...ILM
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