150
FXUS62 KILM 050623
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
223 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ROBESON COUNTY GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL CRITERIA THERE. OTHERWISE THERE WERE
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST. ALL SECTIONS WERE UPDATED
FOR THE START OF THE NEW DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE SOME
TEMPORARY RELIEF FOR SOME AREAS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FOR SOME AREAS EACH DAY.
WHILE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS HAVE BEEN MARGINAL, THE
PERSISTENCE OF THIS HEAT EVENT IS PROBLEMATIC. A DECENT PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO HIT HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON. OPTED TO INCLUDE ROBESON COUNTY TO
THE ADVISORY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
LOSE IT'S GRIP OPENING THE DOOR TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
SPARK SOME WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FOR INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY.
A WEAK H5 TROUGH DRIFTING EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY MON THROUGH
THU ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SEA BREEZE FRONT COULD
HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORM EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OTHER THAN SOME TEMPO CIGS FROM A FEW BANDS OF PASSING STRATO-
CUMULUS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE SEA BREEZE WILL CREATE AN UPTICK IN WINDS ALONG
THE COAST. A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE, AND MAY PROVIDE
SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS AT KLBT/KFLO LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST... GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/LOW CEILINGS EACH MORNING. THREAT FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
INLAND TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE FAR OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN
S-SWLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN SEAS/CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT, ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
SURFACE PATTERN. GEFS >20 KNOT PROBABILITIES EXIST STARTING
TUESDAY, BUT THE HIGHEST PROBS ARE WED AND THU. EITHER WAY,
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT S-SWLY FETCH THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
GOOD WEEK FOR BOATING.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...SRP
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