027
FXUS62 KILM 052357
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
757 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY HAS EXPIRED. MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY FOR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FOR SOME
AREAS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
FOR SOME AREAS EACH DAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK,
BUT THE EXTREME HEAT OBSERVED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOULD
START TO RELAX EARLY THIS WEEK. HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS HAVE
BEEN MARGINAL THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND A DEGRADING RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EARLY THIS WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH, BUT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 100 AND 104. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE WARM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR ANY OUTDOOR PLANS.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE A WEAK
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK. INCREASING ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COULD ALSO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH MORNING, WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY. ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PREVENT DEEP FOG FROM FORMING. MONDAY,
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
WHERE BROKEN 2000-3000 FT DIURNAL CUMULUS DECK FORMS BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, AND HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30S IN THE TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST... GENERALLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/LOW CEILINGS EACH MORNING. THREAT FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH
BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. BREEZY SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. CHOPPY SEAS INCREASE TO AROUND 2-3 FEET. THE
SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS STABLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE
EXTENDED FETCH LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN SWELL AND WIND WAVES. A
COMPRESSED GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...ILM
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