710
FXUS62 KILM 161821
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. KEY MESSAGE
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT WITH LARGELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT WITH LARGELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
RIDGING WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FRIDAY THAT WILL
RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105 DEGREES. CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS LOW ATTM AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN WITH
HEATING FRIDAY SUCH THAT APPARENT TEMPERATURES WON'T REACH 105
DEGREES. BY THE WEEKEND, MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE RECOVERED ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE, BUT THESE AREN'T ANTICIPATED TO HELP TO
ABATE THE HEAT THREAT INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT LOW
PRESSURE COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE SE U.S. WHICH COULD IMPACT
THE RAINFALL FORECAST HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS AND HAZE THE COLUMN
IS MOSTLY DRY PER MORNING RAOBS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALLOW THE
WINDS TO BACK THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THE
FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND VEER BACK TO A SW-WLY DIRECTION.
EXTENDED FORECAST... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS MAY RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... W/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PG
INCREASES, AND THE WIND WAVE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT. SEAS LARGELY
2-3 FT INCREASING TO 4-5 FT THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY BUT THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY BASED THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SE U.S. LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...31
KEY MESSAGES...31
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...31
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