177
FXUS62 KILM 170036
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
836 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE ISSUANCE.
LOW RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ALL 5 COUNTY BEACHES FRI 7/17.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT WITH LARGELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT WITH LARGELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
RIDGING WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FRIDAY
THAT WILL RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW ATTM AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR
TO MIX DOWN WITH HEATING FRIDAY SUCH THAT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WON'T REACH 105 DEGREES. BY THE WEEKEND, MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE, BUT THESE AREN'T
ANTICIPATED TO HELP TO ABATE THE HEAT THREAT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SE U.S. WHICH COULD IMPACT THE RAINFALL FORECAST HEADED INTO
NEXT WEEK BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE 24 HR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CIRRUS AND HAZE(SMOKE) ALOFT THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. HAZE(SMOKE) IS BEING ACCESSED BY THE CIRCULATION ALOFT
THAT IS PARTIALLY PICKING UP THE HAZE (SMOKE) THATS SWEPT OFF
THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES COASTS VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY,
RAOBS AND MODEL TRENDS. FROM THE GROUND POINT OF YOU, THE SKY
WILL HAVE A MILKY LOOK TO IT DURING THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT RUST
COLORED LOOK DURING SUNSET AND/OR SUNRISE DEPENDING ON ITS
THICKNESS. EXPECT DIURNAL CU IN THE 5K TO 7K FT RANGE TO OCCUR
LATER FRI MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TO REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORM. SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY AS FAR AS COVERAGE IS CONCERNED, NOT ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. SYNOPTIC WINDS TO VEER TO WESTERLY
AROUND 5 KT TONIGHT, KEEPING FOG LIMITED/ISOLATED, AND
CONTINUING THRU FRI. EXCEPTION WILL BE WHEN THE MESOSCALE SEA
BREEZE SETS UP AND PROGRESSES INLAND. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY 10-15 G20 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION SAT INCREASING TO SCATTERED SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY.
MARINE
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... W/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PG
INCREASES, AND THE WIND WAVE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT. SEAS
LARGELY 2-3 FT INCREASING TO 4-5 FT THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY BUT THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY
BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SE U.S.
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...31
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...31
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