571
FXUS62 KILM 170624
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
224 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE ISSUANCE. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT WITH LARGELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT WITH LARGELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
RIDGING WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS
OUT FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA TODAY WITH NEAR 110 HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FOR OUR COASTAL AREAS RIGHT WHEN THE SEA BREEZE GETS GOING.
WE SHOULD MIX OUT AGAIN BEHIND THE INITIAL MOISTURE PUSH FROM THE
SEA BREEZE WITH HEAT INDICES LARGELY 107-109. SMOKE ALOFT COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON THESE CONDITIONS AS WELL (LOWER TEMPERATURES, LESS
MIXING, HIGHER DEWPOINTS) ALONG WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT POP UP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. ALL THIS ADDED UNCERTAINTY MADE THE HEAT
ADVISORY THE WAY TO GO. BY THE WEEKEND, MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE
RECOVERED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE, BUT THESE AREN'T ANTICIPATED TO HELP
TO ABATE THE HEAT THREAT INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT LOW
PRESSURE COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE SE U.S. WHICH COULD IMPACT THE
RAINFALL FORECAST HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION
AND EXACT IMPACTS IS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH COASTAL TERMINALS
~16-17Z AND INLAND TERMINALS ~21-23Z WITH A TURN TO STRONGER S WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KTS. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD POP UP ALONG
THIS FEATURE BUT NO IMPACTS TO TERMINALS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED CONVECTION SAT INCREASING TO SCATTERED SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
MARINE
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... W/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PG INCREASES,
AND THE WIND WAVE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT. SEAS LARGELY 2-3 FT
INCREASING TO 4-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME 6 FOOTERS
POSSIBLE 20+ NMI OUT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY
BUT THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SE U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...ILM
MARINE...ILM
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