500
FXUS62 KILM 171831
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
231 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE PROMPTED NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE ARRIVED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING JUST TO OUR NORTH. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY NECESSITATE ANOTHER
ADVISORY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW SURFACE
MOISTURE TO RECOVER THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEEPENS ON
SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE ON
LOCATION AND EXACT IMPACTS REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. ONSHORE FLOW MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
IS MORE PERSISTENT. WINDS TURN SW LATE TONIGHT, SO ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD BECOME VFR.
EXTENDED FORECAST... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NEAR THE AREA. EXPECT BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY.
MARINE
W/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. WIND WAVES BECOME MORE DOMINANT WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET
EARLY THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO 4-5 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SOME 6 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE 20+ NMI OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY BUT THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY
BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SE U.S.
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE RE-ESTABLISHES
A STRONG GRADIENT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...21
MARINE...ILM
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