947
FXUS62 KILM 180040
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
840 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 800PM.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
FOR SAT 7/18...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FOR BRUNSWICK
AND NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY BEACHES. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK
ELSEWHERE. STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH LONGSHORE CURRENT EXPECT ALONG
E-SE FACING BEACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE WEST TO EAST LONGSHORE
CURRENT EXPECTED ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE PROMPTED NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE ARRIVED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING JUST TO OUR NORTH. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY NECESSITATE ANOTHER
ADVISORY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW SURFACE
MOISTURE TO RECOVER THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEEPENS ON
SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE ON
LOCATION AND EXACT IMPACTS REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR TO DOMINATE THE 24 HR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. SOUTH 5 TO
10 KT WINDS BECOME SW AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT, HELPING TO KEEP
FOG DEVELOPMENT LIMITED, IF ANY. CIRRUS 20-25K FT TO DOMINATE
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT TROF AND HIGH
WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE STATES COAST TIGHTENS WITH SSW-SW
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEA BREEZE TO
START MIDDAY AND WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESSION INLAND DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING. WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
10-15 KT WITH G20+ KT POSSIBLE BY MID AFTN THRU THE EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SAT AFTN/EVENING A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS AND AS A RESULT WILL INCLUDE PROB30S AT ALL TERMINALS TO
ACCOUNT FOR JUST -TSRA GIVEN PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MILKY COLORED SKIES
FROM THE HAZE (IE. SMOKE) ALOFT.
EXTENDED FORECAST... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO SUN MORNING
WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PIEDMONT TROF, SEA
BREEZE AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THRU TUE
WITH PERIODIC MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
W/SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. WIND WAVES BECOME MORE DOMINANT WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET
EARLY THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO 4-5 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SOME 6 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE 20+ NMI OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY BUT THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY
BASED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SE U.S.
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE RE-ESTABLISHES
A STRONG GRADIENT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...ILM
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