129
FXUS62 KILM 180707
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
307 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSIONS. HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY.
2) PERIODS TO MONITOR FOR ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES ARE SUNDAY/MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN A CONCERN AT
LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY, SUPPORTING ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WITH
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF DUE TO
THEIR SMALL SIZE AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE. ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL HELP TO KNOCK DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND
OF THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 90S AND INCREASED DEW POINTS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE STILL
SUPPORT HEAT INDICES REACHING AROUND OR ABOVE 105F.
ON SUNDAY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THIS STALLING BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT.
GUIDANCE TOOLS DEPICT THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT. THUS,
ANOTHER HOT AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID DAY IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
PRODUCE CLOUD COVER THAT CAN LOCALLY REDUCE MAX TEMPERATURES, DEW
POINTS ARE UNLIKELY TO DROP AS LOW AS ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO HIGHER
HEAT INDICES DESPITE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS CONSIDERED LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
ADDITIONAL WARM AND HUMID DAYS WILL FOLLOW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NEW WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT SUPPORTS
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH TYPICAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS, SO HEAT ADVISORIES MAY NOT BE
NECESSARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PERIODS TO MONITOR FOR ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES ARE
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS.
AS A TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND STALL. GUIDANCE TOOLS AND
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE OVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH AREAS AROUND AND NORTH OF US-76 HAVING THE BEST RELATIVE
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO NOSE DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH WEAK
LINGERING TROUGHING IN PLACE AND THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR LIKELY ON
MONDAY.
AS TROUGHING BECOMES REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING
MIDWEEK, A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DURING
THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE INTO THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS REALM, EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT REACHES BEFORE STALLING,
AND WHEN THIS OCCURS, CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE TOOLS HAVE
ONLY RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARDS A FURTHER SOUTH/OFFSHORE SOLUTION, SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE COULD BE
ENHANCED EACH DAY IF THE FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST AS OPPOSED
TO FURTHER OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM. IN ADDITION, THIS FRONT
MAY BRING ANOTHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR CONTINUED PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW
TRAVERSES SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT THE TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST. FURTHER
INLAND, EXPECT ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN,
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THESE SMALL AND SHORT-LIVED.
EXTENDED FORECAST... PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE NC TERMINALS BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR THESE
RESTRICTIONS ARE LOWER IN SC DUE TO LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE. OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE DECREASES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A LOW
RISK FOR TRANSIENT MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAILY ENHANCEMENTS NEARSHORE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE. IN ADDITION, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WARRANTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH
PERIODS. SEAS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, RISING TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT IN THE 0-
20NMI ZONES AND 5-6 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES. SEAS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY PERIOD BEFORE RISING AGAIN
TO 4-6 FT IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 6-7 FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES
BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF INTEREST FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF REMAINS AT 30%
THROUGH 7 DAYS. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS KEEP THIS LOW IN THE
GULF, ALTHOUGH THE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND MIDWEEK MAY
EITHER HELP TO FUNNEL THE LOW OUT OF THE GULF OR YIELD A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OF ITS OWN AFTER THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON THIS FEATURE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ABW
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