881
FXUS62 KILM 190026
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
826 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
JUST AFTER 8 PM EDT...
THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA OFFICIALLY EXPIRED AT 8 PM
EDT. ANOTHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IN THE COMING HOURS TO
ADDRESS THE CONTINUED HEAT ON SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE, ISSUED ANOTHER BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR A STRONG
SOUTH TO NORTH LONGSHORE CURRENT ALONG ALL EAST-FACING BEACHES
SUNDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
ALL BEACHES SUNDAY. THERE IS PERHAPS AN ARGUMENT TO BE MADE FOR
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES,
BUT THAT WILL INVOLVE CLOSER EXAMINATION LATER TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOR THE
00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1)HEAT ADVISORY EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
2) A MID TO LATE WEEK FRONT WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT ADVISORY EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO MID LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE (THE CULPRIT FOR MOST OF THE MONTH) OUR 850MB TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 20C WILL KEEP ADVISORY-WORTHY HEAT LOCKED IN THROUGH SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THEREAFTER AS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION COULD TEMPER THE HEAT IN PLACES BUT ADVISORIES DO SEEM
POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A MID TO LATE WEEK FRONT WILL BRING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS NORTH OF NY ON WEDNESDAY IN A
PATTERN THAT LOOKS LESS JULY-ISH. THIS WILL PUSH A BONA FIDE
FRONT INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION. WITH ALL OF THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL THE
STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS WELL SHOULD THE BOUNDARY
LINGER. WPC EVEN HAS NC ZONES IN A SLIGHT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, HOPEFULLY LEADING TO SOME DROUGHT RELIEF.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
CONVECTION ONGOING IN PARTS OF THE NC TRIANGLE, BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. SSW WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS HAVE MOSTLY CEASED
AT KFLO AND KLBT, WHILE GUSTS ARE STILL ROUTINELY HITTING 20-25
KTS AT KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT, LEAVING A PERSISTENT BREEZE AT 8-10 KTS.
WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE OUT OF THE SW BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL TIGHTEN, SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY
WINDS (~20 KTS AT KFLO AND KLBT, 25-30 KTS AT KILM, KCRE, AND
KMYR). SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS DOTTING THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 15-21Z SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ELECTED TO THROW IN
PROB30 GROUPS AT KFLO AND KLBT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR DUE TO
CONVECTION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD (21-00Z). ULTIMATELY,
THINK THE CONVECTION ROLLS IN AFTER THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE LOWER
IN SC DUE TO ANTICIPATED LESSER STORM COVERAGE. FORECAST STORM
CHANCES DECREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, LEAVING A LOW RISK
FOR TRANSIENT MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS IN CONVECTION. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE VERY NEAR
TERM BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH.
SCA NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. CONFIDENCE A
LITTLE LOWER THEREAFTER AS THE TROUGH MAY WEAKEN, BUT WINDS COULD
STAY CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. AN
EVEN LARGER SURGE IN WINDS/SEAS IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AND ALTHOUGH NOT EXPRESSLY DEPICTED IN OUR
FORECASTS JUST YET BUT SEAS LARGER THAN 6 FT APPEAR POSSIBLE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MBB
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