320
FXUS62 KILM 191837
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
237 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1)HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY OFFER THE AREA'S BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN QUITE SOME TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DESPITE THE LACK OF MID LEVEL RIDGING BEING PRESENT LIKE DURING
OUR HOT JULY START THERE IS SIMPLY NOTHING TO SCOUR OUT THE
VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR 20C AT 850MB AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING BENEATH THIS LAYER MID 90S SHOULD BE EASILY
ATTAINABLE TOMORROW, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE AN AREA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY NOT
A CERTAINTY THOUGH, BUT AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE HEAT
HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY OFFER THE
AREA'S BEST RAIN CHANCES IN QUITE SOME TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND IN THE PRESENCE OF PW VALUES AS
HIGH AS 2.4". THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DOWNBURSTS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS US IN A FAIRLY RARE DAY4 OUTLOOK WHILST WPC HAS THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR SLGT/LEVEL 2 OUTTA 5 FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
ADDITION TO A FORECAST OF A COUPLE INCHES OF DROUGHT- RELIEVING
QPF. WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST OFFSHORE IN THE LATE PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR
NOT A TEMPORARY DAY OF DRYING OCCURS. THIS MAY BE SLATED FOR
FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH AND ANOTHER WAVE FORMS ON THE BOUNDARY LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC AND EXTENDING INTO
NORTHEASTERN SC WILL PROVIDE THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH ~22Z. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SUB-VFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT KLBT, KILM AND POSSIBLY KFLO. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INLAND WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, ENHANCED BY THE SEABREEZE
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST INTO PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH SUB-VFR IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KLBT
AND KILM.
EXTENDED FORECAST... WITH A FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE
AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. AS ON SUNDAY, THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN-NC TAF SITES (KLBT, KILM). STORM CHANCES DECREASE ON
TUESDAY, LEAVING A LOW RISK FOR TRANSIENT MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES,
BRINGING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE
ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY
HEADLINES HAVE NOT BEEN CHANGED. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE EASE IN
GRADIENT AND THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO BUT JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH RESPECT TO WIND WHEREAS THE LARGELY COAST-
PARALLEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE LARGER SEAS OUTSIDE OF 20NM AS THEY
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE SHORTER END OF THE PERIOD SPECTRUM (LITTLE TO
NO SWELL ENERGY). THE NEXT FRONT DROPS DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY AND WINDS
PICK UP BACK INTO SCA REALM, PERHAPS MORE SOLIDLY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
033-054-058-059.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page