713
FXUS62 KILM 200003
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
803 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. HEAT RELATED
HEADLINES HAVE ENDED. SURF HAZARDS
KEY MESSAGES
1)HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY OFFER THE AREA'S BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN QUITE SOME TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DESPITE THE LACK OF MID LEVEL RIDGING BEING PRESENT LIKE DURING
OUR HOT JULY START THERE IS SIMPLY NOTHING TO SCOUR OUT THE
VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR 20C AT 850MB AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING BENEATH THIS LAYER MID 90S SHOULD BE EASILY
ATTAINABLE TOMORROW, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASED
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE AN AREA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY NOT
A CERTAINTY THOUGH, BUT AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE HEAT
HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY OFFER THE
AREA'S BEST RAIN CHANCES IN QUITE SOME TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND IN THE PRESENCE OF PW VALUES AS
HIGH AS 2.4". THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DOWNBURSTS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS US IN A FAIRLY RARE DAY4 OUTLOOK WHILST WPC HAS THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR SLGT/LEVEL 2 OUTTA 5 FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
ADDITION TO A FORECAST OF A COUPLE INCHES OF DROUGHT- RELIEVING
QPF. WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST OFFSHORE IN THE LATE PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR
NOT A TEMPORARY DAY OF DRYING OCCURS. THIS MAY BE SLATED FOR
FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH AND ANOTHER WAVE FORMS ON THE BOUNDARY LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR LIKELY TO DOMINATE. STORMS HAVE THUS FAR STRUGGLED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RIDGING ALOFT HAS MAINTAINED AN
ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND MUCH OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SHOWING STORMS STAYING NORTH OF
ILM/LBT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLED NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND SUSPECT THIS IS WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP ANY FOG THAT
HAPPENS TO DEVELOP PATCHY AND TRANSIENT.
ANTICIPATE RIDGING ALOFT AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FLO/LBT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST...LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FROM STORMS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY DUE TO LIMITED STORM COVERAGE.
STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE MIDDLE TO END
OF THE WEEK, INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS IS LOW.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE
ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND THE CURRENT ADVISORY
HEADLINES HAVE NOT BEEN CHANGED. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE EASE IN
GRADIENT AND THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO BUT JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH RESPECT TO WIND WHEREAS THE LARGELY COAST-
PARALLEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE LARGER SEAS OUTSIDE OF 20NM AS THEY
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE SHORTER END OF THE PERIOD SPECTRUM (LITTLE TO
NO SWELL ENERGY). THE NEXT FRONT DROPS DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY AND WINDS
PICK UP BACK INTO SCA REALM, PERHAPS MORE SOLIDLY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...MBB
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