899
FXUS62 KILM 200709
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
309 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSIONS UPDATED. HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
2) BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DURING MID
TO LATE WEEK, INCLUDING A RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN MID-UPPER TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH AND THE CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.D TWO TO THE
SOUTH, LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IN BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-
MID TROPOSPHERE ARE FORECAST TO HOLD AT SIMILAR LEVELS TO THOSE
OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES BREACHING 100F. THE EXTENT OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS WILL AFFECT WHETHER SOME AREAS REACH
HEAT INDICES OF 105F, BUT IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES DOWN AT MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN,
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT DURING MID TO LATE WEEK, INCLUDING A RISK FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND THE STALLED
FRONT RETREATING TO THE NORTH, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POP-UP
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY, WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND ANY CONVERGENCE ZONES THAT HAPPEN TO FORM INLAND. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A STORM
CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH A HEAVY, WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFT. SOMETHING TO WATCH IS THE
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTH, WHICH COULD SEND
OUTFLOW INTO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES (PENDER THROUGH
MARLBORO) AND PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN
THE DAY. TUESDAY IS LOOKING DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
AT THE MOST.
AS TROUGHING BECOMES REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING
MIDWEEK, A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DURING
THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WHILE GUIDANCE TOOLS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND SUGGEST WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE
INCOMING FRONT IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE PRECIP COVERAGE INTO THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS REALM WHEN IT DOES ARRIVE, WHICH COULD BE OVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT REACHES
BEFORE STALLING, AND WHEN THIS OCCURS, STILL CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE
AS GUIDANCE TOOLS REMAIN MIXED WITH RESPECT TO ITS POSITION, SO THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE COULD BE
ENHANCED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IF
THE FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER OFFSHORE
OVER THE GULF STREAM.
IN ADDITION, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WIND
SHEAR INCREASES TO 15-25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERHAPS THE
MORE NOTABLE THREAT IS FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY STORMS
BACKBUILDING AND/OR TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREA MULTIPLE TIMES.
THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL PERSIST IF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG
OR JUST INLAND OF THE COAST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONVECTION HAS BEEN RESILIENT NEAR KLBT SO FAR TONIGHT, AND GIVEN
TRENDS IN WOFS AND HRRR EXPECT TO SEE TEMPO RESTRICTIONS THERE UNTIL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WANE AFTER 07Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCRE/KMYR/KILM. SW-SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TODAY ENHANCED BY A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF A KBBP-KILM LINE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FROM STORMS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY DUE TO LIMITED STORM COVERAGE.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH DAILY ENHANCEMENTS NEARSHORE DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE. WHILE WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY, KEEPING THE WATERS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS FIRMLY AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA. WINDS SETTLE DOWN OVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
STALLS NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE WIND DIRECTION ON FRIDAY PENDING THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT.
SEAS SUBSIDE TODAY TO AROUND 2-4 FT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RISING TO 4-6 FT IN THE 0-20NMI ZONES AND 6-7
FT IN THE 20-60NMI ZONES BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS RELAX ON THURSDAY IN TANDEM WITH WEAKENING WINDS TO 2-4 FT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-033-054-058-059.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...ABW
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