648
FNUS72 KILM 211337
FWSILM
SPOT FORECAST FOR QUARRY FIRE...STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
937 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JULY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
ABOVE-NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS NONE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MAX MIXING HGT......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 29 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (73191 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........3.
MAX ADI.............83.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.20 PERCENT.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........33 32 45 55 51 49 51 34
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 20 20 20 10 10 10
CHC OF LTNG (%).10 10 20 20 20 10 10 10
TEMP............88 89 90 90 90 90 90 89
RH..............72 69 66 68 67 69 66 67
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..10 12 13 13 13 13 14 14
20 FT WIND GUST.14 15 18 19 20 20 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 21 22 21 23 25 26 29
STABILITY.......C C C D D C D C
LVORI...........3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............67 68 73 51 56 75 59 83
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.63 66 70 66 71 67 70 73
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD
SFC PRES (IN)...995 996 996 996 996 996 996 991
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 21 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
MIN MIXING HGT......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 TO 30 MPH.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (16178 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........3.
MIN ADI.............20.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.10 PERCENT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........24 31 26 37 48 32 39 43 45 44 49 45
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
TEMP............88 86 84 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 82 82
RH..............70 73 78 82 82 82 82 82 81 82 82 82
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..14 14 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.21 21 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 19 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.30 30 29 25 26 25 25 24 24 23 23 22
STABILITY.......D D D D D D D D D D D D
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............40 40 39 28 30 23 23 22 22 21 21 20
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.73 70 62 49 40 32 16 17 25 21 20 19
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD GD FR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...991 991 989 989 989 992 992 992 991 991 991 990
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING,
THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (85537 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........4.
MAX ADI.............81.
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING.20 PERCENT.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........48 43 40 54 60 65 68 63 62 60 58 67
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF THDR (%).10 20 10 10 10 10 10 20 0 0 0 0
CHC OF LTNG (%).10 20 10 10 10 10 10 20 0 0 0 0
TEMP............82 82 83 86 88 89 90 91 91 90 90 89
RH..............82 84 82 77 72 70 69 69 69 68 69 70
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 12 12 14 15 16 15 14 14 14
20 FT WIND GUST.18 17 17 18 18 20 21 22 22 21 21 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 1.0 1.7 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.5 3.3 2.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 25
STABILITY.......C C C C C C C C C C C C
LVORI...........4 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............16 24 45 69 75 81 79 78 73 76 73 78
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.13 20 35 64 75 86 82 81 71 77 71 70
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD
SFC PRES (IN)...990 990 994 994 994 997 997 997 995 995 995 992
FORECASTER...BACON
REQUESTED BY...SAFETY OFFICER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617869.0/ILM
.DELDT 07/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL THOMAS.CRATE@NCPARKS.GOV
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