877
FXUS62 KILM 290101
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
901 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 530 IN EFFECT FOR INLAND COUNTIES
THRU 1AM EDT WED.
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER MINOR FLOODING FROM WILMINGTON SOUTHWARD
GOOD THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST TO PEAK AT 5.9 FT MLLW.
THRESHOLD FOR MINOR FLOODING IS 5.5 FT MLLW.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES ONLY FOR
WED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 00Z TAFS
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
STORMS FIRING IN THE UPSTATE REGION OF
THE CAROLINAS/APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BENEFITING FROM BOTH WARM
ADVECTION AND SOME INCREASINGLY VORT-LADEN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW. THESE STORMS SHOULD MEANDER OVER THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM BEFORE THEY START TO CONGEAL INTO A FORCED LINE THAT MOVES
SOUTHWARD. THE RRFS (A WELL INITIALIZED MODEL AT THIS TIME) BRINGS
THE STORMS INTO NORTHERN ZONES BY 00Z CLEARING THE GRAND STRAND AREA
CLOSE TO 04Z. AND WHILE THIS SENSE OF TIMING MAY WORK OUT JUST FINE
NW FLOW-FORCED LINES TEND TO BE QUICKER THAN PROGGED AND SO SHAVED
ABOUT 2 HOURS OFF OF AFOREMENTIONED WINDOWS. TIMING IS NOT THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LINE AS IT ARRIVES, SO TOO IS THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. DCAPE AND MLCAPE WILL BE MAINTAINED BUT ALSO BOTH BE
WANING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. 0-3KM SRH REMAINS IN THE
200-250 RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE
POOR AND THUNDER PROBS STAY QUITE LOW. ONE AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CONCERN IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (NC MORESO THAN SC) WHERE
COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE INDICES JUMP RIGHT AS THE LINE COMES THROUGH.
THE RRFS SUPERCELL COMPOSITE RISES INTO THE 10-15 RANGE IN THE CAPE
FEAR REGION FROM ABOUT 22-01Z. COMBINING THESE INGREDIENTS COULD BE
SUGGESTIVE OF FAIRLY LOW TO MEDIUM HEIGHT STORMS THAT MAY NOT BE THE
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS THAT WE SAW LAST WEEKEND, BUT THERE COULD STILL
BE ENOUGH STORM STRUCTURE OR EVEN WEAK LL MESOS THAT PUT DOWN WIND
DAMAGE. THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO BE SMALL BUT NON-ZERO AS
CLOUD BASES HAVE TROUBLE GETTING BELOW ABOUT 4KFT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT AND UPPER IMPULSE TO
COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION AS BOTH SYSTEMS DROP
SOUTHWARD. SVR WATCH 530 IN EFFECT THRU 05Z WED AND AFFECTS LBT
AND FLO TERMINALS ONLY. HAVE TIMED THE POTENTIAL SEVERE ACTIVITY
AFFECTING THE INLAND TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. CONDITIONS
ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC NOT ALL PRIMED FOR CONVECTION GIVEN
LATEST CIN ACROSS THE FA AS WELL AS LOSS OF HEATING AND WITH
MUCH OF THE DAY ENCASED IN SMOKE ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. NEVERTHELESS, WILL END THE
CONVECTIVE AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTION THREAT BY 06Z FOR
FLO/LBT AND 09Z FOR ILM/CRE/MYR. WILL DEAL WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY WED THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO JUST CIRRUS AND
FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU/SC CLOUDS WED AFTN/EVENING. ACTIVE SW WINDS 5
TO 10 KT INLAND, 10-15 G20+ AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE W THEN NW AND DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY NW 5 TO 10 KT AFTER FROPA
EARLY WED. THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE WINDS BACK TO THE S
AROUND 10 KT MID AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNAKING BACK
NORTHWARD.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE AT ITS BEGINNING. THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
MARGINAL SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THEN AFTER WHICH TIME THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS/SEAS BOTH START TO ABATE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD COULD VERY WELL FEATURE WINDS CAPPED AT
10 KT AND SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES OF LESS THAN 3 FT AS THE
PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK DUE TO A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SW
INTO THE REGION FROM A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM TRYING TO EXIT
THE MIDATLANTIC REGION, ITS PROGRESS SLOWED BY THE FACT THAT IT
SPENDS TIME UNDER A CUTOFF LOW ALOFT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RALF
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...RALF
MARINE...MBB
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