554
FXUS62 KILM 290627
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
227 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE NEW FORECAST PERIOD. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR DOWNTOWN CAPE FEAR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER IN THE COMING
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER IN
THE COMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH
WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE ACTUAL
FRONT IS A LITTLE BEHIND JUST MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. CONVECTION...NON SEVERE STILL WANTS
TO DEVELOP EAST WEST ALONG THE TROUGH WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
POPS WILL TAKE TIME TO CLEAR THE REGION NOW SHIFTING MORE TOWARD
9-12 UTC. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN AND AROUND 90 AND LOWS EVEN
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN PLACES. THE WARMER READINGS WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH STILL NO THREATS TO HEAT
RELATED HEADLINES. BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
CERTAINLY INTO NEXT WEEK MID LEVEL TROUGHING PERHAPS A CLOSED
LOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH GOOD RAIN CHANCES/MOISTURE
ADVECTION RETURNING TO OUR AREA.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SOME LINGERING CONVECTION SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA CURRENTLY. CITING THE TENACITY OF THE CONVECTION APPLIED
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG COASTAL SITES WHILE INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD
BE ALL BUT CLEAR OF CONVECTION.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNAKING BACK
NORTHWARD.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST EXPECT A RARE
NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WITH SPEEDS OF
10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. BEING ALMOST AUGUST THIS
FLOW WILL NOT LAST LONG AND A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS
QUICKLY RETURNS TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
REGARDING SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE 3-5 FT RANGE PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SIX FEET READING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE RANGE DIPS TO 2-4
FEET WITH MORE LIKE 2-3 FEET AS THE FORECAST PERIOD PROGRESSES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK
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