581
FXUS62 KILM 302331
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THROUGH SATURDAY, MID-UPPER TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. ABUNDANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO THE
SOUTH. WHILE AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL STAY DRY
GIVEN THIS SETUP.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS AN ABNORMALLY STRONG MID-UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE MIDWEST, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO 2.2-2.5", WHICH IS 120-140% OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH (E.G., WHETHER
IT CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW) CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE, ITS
PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW, WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT LASTS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DAILY SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ABOVE
NORMAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS IN THIS SETUP DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IN THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE IS DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION AND POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH. THUS, WHILE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS PRESENT, THE RANGE OF OBSERVED AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY WIDE WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP LITTLE TO NO RAIN WHILE
OTHERS COULD SEE MULTIPLE INCHES WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.
GUIDANCE TOOLS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING OVER.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR TO START OFF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. PLENTY OF DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL MAKE FOR A CLEAR NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CALM
WINDS ALL NIGHT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN
AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN RAIN OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS, THE CONDITIONS
ABOVE THE GROUND ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG TO GROW VERTICALLY.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG, MAINLY FOR THE SC
TERMINALS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.
LITTLE TO NO WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN 12-18Z TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR STEADY
ONSHORE WINDS COMMENCING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR LIKELY INTO SATURDAY. AT LEAST
TRANSIENT MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS BECOME LIKELY BETWEEN SUNDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE BRINGS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK
INTO THE PICTURE.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY... EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO 10 KTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND VEER TO
SOUTHERLY OVER SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK TO
THE COAST. WINDS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE FRONT LIFTS INLAND, RESULTING IN
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO PASS SCA CRITERIA ON
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
WEAK WINDS WILL YIELD BENIGN SEAS BETWEEN 1-3 FT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. SEAS RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 4-6 FT AS WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AND THESE CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE RELAXING GRADUALLY ON MONDAY
NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW
DISCUSSION...ABW
AVIATION...MAS/ABW
MARINE...ABW
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