833
FXUS62 KILM 311020
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE NEW FORECAST PERIOD. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR DOWNTOWN CAPE FEAR FRIDAY NIGHT. AVIATION
SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1)MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONE MORE DAY OF LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS
2) WET AND UNSETTLED SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ONE MORE DAY OF LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, A VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, LARGELY LIMITING ANY SEABREEZE-
DRIVEN CONVECTION TODAY WHILE PROVIDING ONE MORE DAY OF
RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
BY SATURDAY, THE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WET AND UNSETTLED SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT MAY EVOLVE INTO A WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH AND LINGER INTO LATE WEEK
BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN THIS SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR, WITH PWATS OF 2.0-2.50",
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
COMBINED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS AND
DAILY DIURNAL HEATING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NUMEROUS AT TIMES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED DROUGHT
RELIEF, WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
DURING THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
STORMS REPEATEDLY TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA, WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO
ISOLATED FLOOD.
WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTING
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST... ONSET OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. AN UNSETTLED AVIATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH, STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS IMPACT THE
REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH PERIODIC SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS EACH DAY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...THROUGH MONDAY... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND VEER TO SOUTHERLY OVER SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE COAST. WINDS INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE
FRONT LIFTS INLAND, RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS
LIKELY TO PASS SCA CRITERIA ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
WEAK WINDS WILL YIELD BENIGN SEAS BETWEEN 1-3 FT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. SEAS RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 4-6 FT AS WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AND THESE CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE RELAXING GRADUALLY ON MONDAY
NIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CBL
KEY MESSAGES...CBL
DISCUSSION...CBL
AVIATION...MAS/CBL
MARINE...ABW/CBL
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