982
FXUS62 KILM 010624
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
224 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK
2) STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER/MID MS
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND POTENTIALLY CLOSING
OFF OVER THE SE US/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OFF TO THE NE LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK.
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN THIS SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR, WITH PWATS OF 2.0-
2.50"(125-1505 OF NORMAL), ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MON-WED AIDED BY EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES INTERACTING WITH SEABREEZE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A JET OVER THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY
WEAKENS, CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PATTERN AS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED DROUGHT
RELIEF, WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
STORMS REPEATEDLY TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA, WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO
ISOLATED FLOODING. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY WEAK
LAPSE RATES, HIGHS IN THE 80S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THOUGH A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
FROM THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS NEAR
INLAND TAF SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
LIGHT SELY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-18 KTS POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST... A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
REGION, COMBINED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS, WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT. PERIODIC SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL ALSO SUPPORT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS EACH
DAY.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND VEER TO SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STALLED FRONT
LIFTS BACK TO THE COAST. WINDS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE FRONT LIFTS INLAND, RESULTING
IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO PASS SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. WEAK WINDS WILL
YIELD BENIGN SEAS BETWEEN 1-3 FT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 4-6 FT AS WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THESE
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE RELAXING GRADUALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WINDS COME BACK DOWN TOWARDS A MODERATE BREEZE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WHILE SEAS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CBL
KEY MESSAGES...CBL
DISCUSSION...CBL
AVIATION...CBL
MARINE...CBL/IGB
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