643
FXUS62 KILM 011843
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
243 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AS WE HEAD TOWARDS 3 PM
EDT. UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
- 2) STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
SNAKES THROUGH MIDDLE TN TO METRO ATLANTA TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CSRA TO SC LOWCOUNTRY AND OFFSHORE. ALOFT, AN
UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, WHILE RIDGING
HOLDS ON OVER THE ATLANTIC. INCREASED GRADIENT FLOW HAS BEEN
NOTED BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, AND THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS ARE IN PERFECT POSITION TO SOAK UP LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SE TO SSE. IN THE 300-700 MB LAYER, DEEP SW
FLOW IS USHERING EVEN MORE RICH MOISTURE FORM THE GULF.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTING TO STIR UP ALONG THE SHORTWAVES
IN THE SC PEE DEE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MOSTLY IN NORTHEAST SC. TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE AN
OVERALL LULL IN THE ACTIVITY, BESIDES A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR
STORMS TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE PEE DEE REGION, OR OFFSHORE
STORMS ATTEMPTING TO SCRAPE THE COAST.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOAD INTO THE AIR SUNDAY, CREATING A
TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE WITHOUT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWAT) VALUES JUMP UP INTO THE 2.00-2.25" RANGE, WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND 125-150% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD, AIDING IN THE INITIAL LIFT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST AT FIRST, TRANSLATING
TO THE INLAND AREAS BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LOW DOESN'T APPEAR QUITE
AS STAGNANT AS IT DID 24 HOURS AGO. EVEN SO, THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST. THIS
ENHANCES THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS, ALLOWING FOR HEALTHY DOSES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO LOOSEN UP A BIT
BY WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SHAKY ON THE DETAILS. PERIODS
OF RAIN COULD EASILY GO INTO WEDNESDAY IF THE MOISTURE REGIME IS
MAINTAINED.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO FAVOR COASTAL AREAS WITH THE MOST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCHES. INLAND AREAS LOOK MORE LIKE
0.50-0.75". LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE.
TRAINING IN STORMS MAY CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN SOME SPOTS.
WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S WILL PROMOTE
HEALTHY BUOYANCY, LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EACH DAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY DAMAGING
WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR TO OPEN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, WITH RESTRICTIONS ON THE WAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE SC MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE MAY TRY TO
SPILL OVER INTO KFLO AND KLBT THROUGH THIS EVENING, CREATING
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN OR TSRA. OVERALL LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT PROB30 GROUPS WERE
INCLUDED AFTER 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS POTENTIALLY SCRAPING
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CEILINGS COME DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WHERE MANY COULD BE BATTLING MVFR AFTER 06Z. WARM FRONT
PUSHES ONSHORE SUNDAY, CREATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATE,
WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING TSRA.
EXTENDED FORECAST...A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER
THE REGION, COMBINED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS, WILL
SUPPORT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC SUB-VFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS EACH DAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE SE VEER TO THE S
TONIGHT, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE COAST. SEAS START TO
INCREASE MODESTLY AT FIRST, GOING FROM 2-3 FT TO 3-5 FT. WINDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND THE FRONT LIFTS INLAND, RESULTING IN A FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE OUT OF THE SW TO SSW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES
INTO EFFECT AT NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF
CITY, NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM, EXPIRING AT 8 PM
EDT MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THESE GRADIENT WINDS, SEAS RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO 4-7 FT OUT 20 NM, UP TO 7-8 OUT 60 NM, BEFORE
IMPROVING GRADUALLY TOWARDS 3-4 FT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE S TUESDAY, IMPROVING TO A MODERATE
BREEZE, AND THEN TOWARDS A GENTLE BREEZE BY THURSDAY. SEAS
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO 2-3 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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