794
FXUS62 KILM 020644
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
244 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE NEW FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN BEGINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN UNDERWAY WITH PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK
2) STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN UNDERWAY WITH
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD, RE-AMPLIFYING
INTO A CLOSED OVER THE NE US AND INTO SE SE CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE SE
US/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AND LIFTING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, PLACING THE FORECAST AREA FIRMLY WITH A WARM
TROPICAL AIRMASS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PERSISTENT DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE CUT-OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. PWATS OF 2.0-2.50"(125-1505 OF NORMAL) WILL
SUPPORT PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK,
HEAVY AT TIMES.
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOUR AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-
DEVELOP BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MODERATE BUOYANCY COMBINES WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. THIS PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY, WITH
REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE CUT-OFF LOW MEANDERS NEARBY. BY THURSDAY, AS THE
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS AWAY, CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SUMMERTIME PATTERN.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS TRACKING OVER THE SAME LOCATION COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED TOTALS WELL IN EXCESS OF THE 1-2" AREAL AVERAGE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING NEAR KINGSTREE IN
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY, WHERE AN ISOLATED 6-7" OR RAINFALL FELL. THE
LOCAL PROBABILITY MATCHED MEANS(LPMM)FROM THE 00Z/02 HREF HIGHLIGHTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3"+ ACROSS WESTERN/INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIALLY SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY WEAK
LAPSE RATES, HIGHS IN THE 80S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY, WITH WET MICROBURSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND FREQUENT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW EARLY AUGUST CLIMATOLOGY, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 85 TO 90 THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS
AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE, INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
06 TO 12Z. TEMPERED DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL LIFTING OF
ANY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP BY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MODERATE BUOYANCY COMBINES WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER MVFR BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z MON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 7 TO 10 KTS WILL TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO
17 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
KTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE
REGION, COMBINED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS, WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT. PERIODIC SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS EACH DAY.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE BREEZE OUT OF THE SE VEER TO THE S
TONIGHT, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE COAST. SEAS START TO
INCREASE MODESTLY AT FIRST, GOING FROM 2-3 FT TO 3-5 FT. WINDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA, RESULTING IN A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE OUT OF THE S TO SSW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT
NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM, EXPIRING AT 8 PM EDT MONDAY. IN RESPONSE
TO THESE GRADIENT WINDS, SEAS RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 4-7 FT OUT 20 NM,
UP TO 7-8 OUT 60 NM, BEFORE IMPROVING GRADUALLY TOWARDS 3-4 FT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE S TUESDAY,
IMPROVING TO A MODERATE BREEZE, AND THEN TOWARDS A GENTLE BREEZE BY
THURSDAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO 2-3 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CBL
KEY MESSAGES...CBL
DISCUSSION...CBL
AVIATION...CBL
MARINE...IGB/CBL
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