165
FXUS62 KILM 021906
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AS WE MOVE PAST 3 PM EDT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ONGOING, WITH PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
- 2) STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ONGOING, WITH PERIODS
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAROLINAS THOROUGHLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S FOUND EVERYWHERE
ACROSS NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUES ARE LINGERING IN AN OPPRESSIVE 2.3-2.4" RANGE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN THE THEME TODAY, SCRAPING THE COAST
AT TIMES EARLIER THIS MORNING, AND HAVE NOW TRANSITIONED TO THE
INLAND NC COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SC
GRAND STRAND.
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH
DIGGING WELL INTO THE GULF COAST, SURGING MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REGION. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT, PROMOTING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PERIODS OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
STICKS CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT INLAND AREAS ARE FULLY CAPABLE
AT RECORDING AN INCH OR SO IN THE COMING DAYS.
SOMETHING TO WATCH IS STORMS TRACKING/TRAINING OVER A SPECIFIC
LOCATION FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME, WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
THE RAINFALL TOTALS. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW A HOTSPOT OF 6-7" THAT
FELL IN PARTS OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY LAST NIGHT, PROVING THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS CAPABLE OF THIS. LPMM DATA FROM THE HREF IS
NOT AS HOT ON THIS AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT, BUT THE PRECEDENCE HAS
BEEN SET, AND IT NEEDS MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY
AUGUST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM UNTIL 8
PM EDT MONDAY. SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MORE RESTRICTIONS THAN VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA HAS MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS, IN BETWEEN
SOME VFR DECKS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DRAPE
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ALL TERMINALS AT THE RISK OF RECORDING
TSRA AND IFR CEILINGS FOR BRIEF PERIODS (TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS
OUTLINE THE SPECIFIC TIMING).
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MVFR CEILINGS MAY DROP DOWN TO IFR
HEADING TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY INLAND.
CATEGORY IMPROVES TO MVFR LATER IN THE MORNING, AND PERHAPS EVEN
VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING, BUT RAMPS BACK UP BY
MIDDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PERIODIC SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THURSDAY.
THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR MORNING STRATUS EACH DAY. WIDESPREAD VFR MIGHT BE DUE TO
RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC
OUT 20 NM UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ESCALATE
TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OUT OF THE SSW. IN RESPONSE TO
THESE GRADIENT WINDS, SEAS RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 4-7 FT OUT 20 NM,
UP TO 7 FT OUT 60 NM, BEFORE IMPROVING GRADUALLY TOWARDS 3-4 FT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE S TUESDAY,
IMPROVING TO A MODERATE BREEZE, AND THEN TOWARDS A GENTLE
BREEZE BY THURSDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SE BY
FRIDAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO 2-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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