441
FXUS62 KILM 022326
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
726 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION ISSUED FOR 00 UTC TAFS. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR ALL BEACHES MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ONGOING, WITH PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
- 2) STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ONGOING, WITH PERIODS
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAROLINAS THOROUGHLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S FOUND EVERYWHERE
ACROSS NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUES ARE LINGERING IN AN OPPRESSIVE 2.3-2.4" RANGE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN THE THEME TODAY, SCRAPING THE COAST
AT TIMES EARLIER THIS MORNING, AND HAVE NOW TRANSITIONED TO THE
INLAND NC COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SC
GRAND STRAND.
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH
DIGGING WELL INTO THE GULF COAST, SURGING MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REGION. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT, PROMOTING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PERIODS OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
STICKS CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT INLAND AREAS ARE FULLY CAPABLE
AT RECORDING AN INCH OR SO IN THE COMING DAYS.
SOMETHING TO WATCH IS STORMS TRACKING/TRAINING OVER A SPECIFIC
LOCATION FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME, WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
THE RAINFALL TOTALS. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW A HOTSPOT OF 6-7" THAT
FELL IN PARTS OF WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY LAST NIGHT, PROVING THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE IS CAPABLE OF THIS. LPMM DATA FROM THE HREF IS
NOT AS HOT ON THIS AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT, BUT THE PRECEDENCE HAS
BEEN SET, AND IT NEEDS MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY
AUGUST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC OUT 20 NM UNTIL 8
PM EDT MONDAY. SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PROBABLY THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS IT STAYING
INTACT ACROSS THE COAST BUT THERE ARE DOUBTS. WITH THIS IN MIND
USED A TEMPO GROUP IN FLORENCE WITH VCSH AND PROB30'S
ELSEWHERE. WITH THIS BEING THE STRONGEST WAVE SO FAR THERE MAY
BE A PROLONGED QUIET PERIOD FROM ABOUT 0800 UTC THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. ALL IN ALL SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE ANY TIME BUT PROBABLY MORE PREVALENT DURING THE
CONVECTION HOURS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PERIODIC SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THURSDAY.
THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR MORNING STRATUS EACH DAY. WIDESPREAD VFR MIGHT BE DUE TO
RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY, NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC
OUT 20 NM UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ESCALATE
TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OUT OF THE SSW. IN RESPONSE TO
THESE GRADIENT WINDS, SEAS RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 4-7 FT OUT 20 NM,
UP TO 7 FT OUT 60 NM, BEFORE IMPROVING GRADUALLY TOWARDS 3-4 FT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE S TUESDAY,
IMPROVING TO A MODERATE BREEZE, AND THEN TOWARDS A GENTLE
BREEZE BY THURSDAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SE BY
FRIDAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO 2-4 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...IGB
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