602
FXUS62 KILM 041053
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN CONTINUES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY, WITH A SLOW-MOVING UPR-LEVEL
LOW STILL OFF TO THE WEST, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWING IN PLENTY
OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRECIP AGAIN WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY
IN THE DAY, TRANSITIONING MORE INLAND LATER ON. ISOLATED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SHOULD SLOW-MOVING, HEAVY RAINFALL MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER TODAY, THE UPR-
LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN WITH RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING EACH
DAY, BUT STILL STAYING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS DUE TO
STAGNANT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHRA FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY ILM AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FEED UP THROUGH
THE CAPE FEAR ARES. INLAND TERMINALS WILL HAVE IFR/LIFR STRATUS
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, INC. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CREATE VARIABLE CEILINGS
AND COULD SEE CIGS AND VSBYS FLUCTUATING QUITE A BIT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH LATE DAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
S/SE BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PERIODIC SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS EACH DAY.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT FAIRLY LIGHT S/SE FLOW AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IS
LOCKED IN PLACE OFF TO THE EAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAIN ELEVATED MOST DAYS, ESP. DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS OVER THE WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ110.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS/RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...MAS
AVIATION...MAS/RGZ
MARINE...MAS
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