683
FXUS62 KILM 112336
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAISED POPS BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS. GUT FEELING IS THAT THE NEAR
TERM SEVERE THREAT OVER INLAND NC WILL SHIFT INTO THE PEE DEE WHERE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST. ANY STORM THAT REACHES THE COAST OF EITHER
STATE SHOULD BE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. AVIATION SECTION UPDATED AS
WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A FEW EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK
WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEGRADING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST WILL REACH THE I-95
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. A FEW LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY POOLING ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF
WEAK FORCING. THE TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION FAVORS LOWER SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES, BUT ANY SURVIVING STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST.
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. FORECASTED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS WEEK ARE IN THE UPPER 90S, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SITES REACHING 100F AT LEAST ONE DAY THIS
WEEK. COMBINED WITH SEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S, HEAT INDICES EACH AFTERNOON WILL EASILY ECLIPSE TRIPLE
DIGITS. MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR EACH AFTERNOON MAY ALLEVIATE
SOME OF THE HUMIDITY, BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT MULTIPLE DAYS OF
HEAT PRODUCTS NEEDED. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SAME FOOTPRINT ON WEDNESDAY. NWS HEATRISK
HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME IMPACTS FROM HEAT FOR OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S PROVIDING
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF.
RAIN CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO THE
RIDGE'S INFLUENCE. SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES MAY LEAD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LATE FRIDAY AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN SHOULD AMPLIFY LATE THIS WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE FORMER BERMUDA RIDGE
RETROGRADES TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND AN UPTICK
IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STORMS TO AFFECT LBT SHORTLY AND FLO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. TOUGH
CALL ON COASTAL TERMINALS AS INSTABILITY IS WANING THERE...PERHAPS A
SHORT-LIVED SHOWER OR TWO THAT WON'T REALLY WARRANT BEING IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE VFR UNLESS THIS OVERPERFORMING RAIN MOISTENS
FLO AND LBT SUFFICIENTLY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE INLAND EACH EARLY MORNING.
THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH 4 FOOTERS IN THE 20-60NM ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY DUE TO SSW WIND WAVE WITH A WEAK ESE SWELL MIXED IN. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY, MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY, TURNING WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY FOR SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ096-099-
105>110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ107.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ054>056-
058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...VAO/21
DISCUSSION...VAO/21
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...VAO/21
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