282
FXUS62 KILM 121003
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
603 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FORECASTED ALONG AREA BEACHES DURING
EVENING HIGH TIDE TODAY AND THURSDAY, AS WELL AS ALONG LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER.
3) WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY WITH BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO THE
HEAT FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH END OF THE
WEEK.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL AID IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH (AT LEAST) FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 90S TODAY INCREASING TO UPPER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH SUMMERTIME
HUMIDITY, WE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT
PRODUCTS. THERE IS A CHANCE HEAT INDICES COULD REACH WARNING
CRITERIA OF 110F THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE HEATRISK IS FORECASTED TO BE EXTREME.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
INTERACTING WITH PINNED SEA BREEZE, PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING OVER TOP THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. HAVE
KEPT POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE (15-20%) TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AIDING TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FORECASTED ALONG AREA
BEACHES DURING EVENING HIGH TIDE TODAY AND THURSDAY, AS WELL AS
ALONG LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
NEW MOON TODAY WILL AID IN ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS. LATEST TOTAL
WATER FORECAST HAS WATER LEVELS REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG
AREA BEACHES BOTH WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE AND TOMORROW
EVENING. THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY WITH BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO THE HEAT FOR THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAY
BRING SCATTERED STORMS TO THE AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH
WITH THE STRONGER FORCING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST, IT SHOULD
WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
FORECAST MAINTAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY,
BEFORE WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WNW FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERLY
10KT WINDS AT CRE AND MYR WITH PINNED SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE INLAND EACH EARLY MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FORECASTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS BRIEFLY TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT OUT TO 20NM AND 2-3 FT OUT TO
60NM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS
LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SSW WIND WAVE WILL BE DOMINANT
FEATURE, WITH WEAK ESE SWELL MIXED IN. BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ096-099-105>110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...VAO
DISCUSSION...VAO
AVIATION...31
MARINE...VAO
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