412
FXUS62 KILM 131031
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
631 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, ALTHOUGH LOWERED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS A BIT NEXT FEW
DAYS BASED ON SOME MORE CLOUDS TODAY AND ALSO WHAT HAPPENED
YESTERDAY REGARDING LOWER THAN EXPECTED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. ALSO, ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTN/EVE BASED
ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST OF A PASSING WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
AIDING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL HELP PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO HEAT ADVISORY RANGE (105-
109 DEGREES) FOR MOST EACH DAY AND EVEN INTO HEAT WARNING RANGE
(110+ DEGREES) FOR SOME (MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE GREATEST). HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING HEAT INDICES REMAINS LOWER THAN
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND, AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/RAIN/CLOUD COVERAGE.
REMEMBER, HEAT IS THE #1 WEATHER-RELATED CAUSE OF DEATH SO EVERYONE
IS ENCOURAGED TO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. CHECK OUT OUR HEAT PAGE
(WEATHER.GOV/ILM/HEAT) FOR THE LATEST HEAT FORECASTS AND SAFETY
INFO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE NEW MOON WILL CAUSE ELEVATED TIDE
LEVELS THRU LATE WEEK. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AND ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH TODAY. ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER,
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR OUTSIDE OF A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR VSBY EARLY THIS MORNING AT
NON-TAF SITES. FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CU AROUND 7KFT THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING TAF
PERIOD, WITH PINNED SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AT MYR AND CRE AFTER
16Z. ISOLATED STORM MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION.
EXTENDED...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE A GENERALLY LOW RISK FOR LOW
CLOUDS/FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND MAINLY AFTN/EVE
SHOWERS/STORMS.
MARINE
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MOST OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO SHIFTING WINDS AND HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. HOWEVER, WINDS/SEAS SHOULD NOT REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RJB
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