022
FXUS62 KILM 140005
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
805 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUED IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR FRIDAY, AS WELL. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE BEACHES AND ALONG LOWER CAPE
FEAR RIVER FOR THE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
3) THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
AIDING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL HELP PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO HEAT ADVISORY RANGE (105-
109 DEGREES) FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA EACH DAY AND EVEN INTO
HEAT WARNING RANGE (110+ DEGREES) FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
GREATEST). HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING HEAT INDICES REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
THIS WEEKEND, AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/RAIN/CLOUD COVERAGE.
REMEMBER, HEAT IS THE #1 WEATHER-RELATED CAUSE OF DEATH SO EVERYONE
IS ENCOURAGED TO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS. CHECK OUT OUR HEAT PAGE
(WEATHER.GOV/ILM/HEAT) FOR THE LATEST HEAT FORECASTS AND SAFETY
INFO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE NEW MOON WILL CAUSE ELEVATED TIDE
LEVELS THROUGH LATE WEEK. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH TODAY. ALONG THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER, LEVELS MAY NEAR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALSO
DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MINOR PERTURBATIONS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER
RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER
CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORT TO PRODUCE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY
COME MON NIGHT AND TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES
SUPPRESSED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ALLOWING THESE DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NW.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR TRANSIENT MIST AT KILM AND MODERATE CHANCE AT KFLO
LATE TONIGHT. WHILE A ~20 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO FORM
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS, THIS IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO AROUND 10KTS LATE IN THE NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A SMALL
WINDOW FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP AT KILM. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION, BUT GIVEN THAT MIST MANAGED TO FORM THIS MORNING, IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE ANOTHER SHORT PERIOD OF MIST,
MAINLY BETWEEN 10-12Z, IF WINDS STAY LIGHT OR CALM LATE IN THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, AT KFLO, A WEAKER JET IS FORECAST, LEAVING A
LARGER WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL MIST FORMATION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LIMITED BY HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL AFFECT OVERNIGHT
COOLING, KEEPING CONFIDENCE MODERATE AT BEST. AFTER ANY MIST
BURNS OFF, EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS MAINLY
BETWEEN 5-7KFT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE, BUT
WITH CHANCES LOWER THAN 30%. INITIALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TOWARDS SOUTHERLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AROUND MIDDAY.
EXTENDED...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF A GENERALLY LOW RISK FOR LOW
CLOUDS/FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND MAINLY AFTN/EVE
SHOWERS/STORMS. BEST CHC OF STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUES.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONT SHOULD STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO SHIFTING WINDS
AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, WINDS/SEAS SHOULD NOT REACH
HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL, SW WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH FRI, WILL SPIKE UP
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONT LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT WITH
TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/RGZ
DISCUSSION...RJB/RGZ
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
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