775
FXUS62 KILM 142334
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
734 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT ADVISORY AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY.
2) DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
3) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT ADVISORY AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S. THE HEAT COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
YIELD HEAT INDICES OF 104-109F WITH A FEW HIGHER SPOTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. AS A RESULT, PLAN TO ISSUE ANOTHER FORECAST
AREA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY FROM AROUND 11A-8P. THIS
STRONG HEATING IN A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEARBY WEAK
FRONT ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SCATTERED STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL
THAT SIGNIFICANT POTENTIALLY MARGINALIZING CHANCES A BIT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
BY SUNDAY THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAT COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A HEAT INDEX POTENTIALLY 110+ FOR A
LARGER EXTENT. SINCE THE FORECAST AREA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME, THE W- NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD LEAD
TO SOME HARD TO TIME IMPULSES BEING DIRECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE STORMS COULD PROVIDE RELIEF FOR SOME AREAS THIS
WEEK, WITH LESSER STORM CHANCES MONDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND CONTINUED TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL LEAD
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER WITH
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THESE ANOMALIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AT TIMES FOR INLAND
TERMINALS, THE HIGH CLOUDINESS AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
SHOULD PRECLUDE MIST FORMATION, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AT KFLO OR KLBT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE WHILE INLAND TERMINALS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSING A THREAT FOR
BRIEF IFR TO LIFR VIS RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN.
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING STORMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
SUNDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THEN
NORTHERN WATERS THEN STRUGGLE TO PUSH SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER
SOUTH RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD WAFFLE
BACK TO THE NORTH DURING SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SWLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE AGAIN TUESDAY.
SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER/ALONG WITH WINDS NEAR ANY CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE
IS ON THE LOW-SIDE REGARDING THE WIND GIVEN THE SUBTLETIES WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTION.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NCZ107.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...SRP
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