668
FXUS62 KILM 150639
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
239 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
-DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT ADVISORY AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN JUST TO OUR WEST TODAY
WHILE 850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 20C. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AND
ANOTHER IN WHAT WILL BE A LONG STRING OF ADVISORIES IS IN PLACE.
THERE WAS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SOME WARNING-WORTHY HI VALUES
OF 110 OR HIGHER MATERIALIZING BUT THEY SHOULD BE TOO FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN TO WARRANT THE UPGRADE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE TAKING THE EDGE
OFF OF THE STILL STRONG INSOLATION. A FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA AS WELL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE, THOUGH THE
SPREAD IN FORECAST INSTABILITY IS MAKING FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY.
THEN AGAIN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS OVERPERFORMED IN
SOME OF OUR RECENT NW FLOW EVENTS SO I LIKE THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS THAT THE NBM GAVE ME, MOST FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, THOUGH THE AREA-WIDE QPF LOOKED A BIT TOO HIGH AND
WAS TRIMMED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BY SUNDAY THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAT COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A HEAT INDEX POTENTIALLY 110+ FOR A
LARGER EXTENT. SINCE THE FORECAST AREA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME, THE W- NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD LEAD
TO SOME HARD TO TIME IMPULSES BEING DIRECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE STORMS COULD PROVIDE RELIEF FOR SOME AREAS THIS
WEEK, WITH LESSER STORM CHANCES MONDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR WITH WIDESPREAD CIRRUS THE ONLY CIG OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT POSSIBLY
COMING TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AT ILM AND LBT AND POSSIBLY FLO. FRONTS
CAN BE TRICKY THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WITH SUCH HEAT IN PLACE THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD TOUCH OFF THUNDERSTORMS BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
HAVE ADVERTISED PROB30 AT ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT ESP IF SAID STORMS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO A GIVEN AIRFIELD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STORMS
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THOUGH PINNING DOWN AN EXACT WIND
DIRECTION IS TRICKY AS THERE MAY NOT BE ONE SAVE FOR THE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT LINGERING MOST ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES SOUTH OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. WINDS AND THUS WAVES (IN THE ABSENCE OF MUCH SWELL ENERGY)
WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL UNTIL A SMALL UPTICK IN SW FLOW OCCURS ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/SRP
DISCUSSION...MBB/SRP
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB
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