606
FXUS62 KILM 152352
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
752 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
1) THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
INTO SUNDAY. A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
LOCALLY BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE, ALTHOUGH WITH A
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MORE CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY, HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER, BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. KEPT PENDER AND NEW HANOVER OUT
OF THE ADVISORY WHERE HEAD INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK MORE IN
THE 100-104 DEGREE RANGE, AND WILL RE-EVALUATE IN THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE. EXTREME HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR MONDAY WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS ALSO IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE. MORE
MARGINAL FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (CHANCE POPS)
COMPARED TO MONDAY AS BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT TRAVERSES
THE AREA. HEAT PRODUCTS ARE LESS LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE POTENTIAL FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS LATER IN THE NIGHT,
WHICH CARRIES MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WITH MOST OF THE
AREA HAVING SEEN RAINFALL OR RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM TODAY'S
STORMS AND THE EXPECTATION FOR CALM WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT,
HAVE OPTED TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON FOG/LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HOWEVER, ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
THICKNESS AND LONGEVITY OF HIGH CIRRUS FROM STORMS NORTH OF THE
AREA STREAMING IN. EXPECT VFR TO RETURN BY MID-MORNING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, INITIALLY FOCUSED ON THE SEA
BREEZE BEFORE SPREADING INLAND. BRIEF IFR TO LIFR VIS
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
STORMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH NO STRONG FROPAS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS AVERAGE 10-15 KT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION,
WITH SEAS STEADY AT 2-3 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
109-110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...MAS
DISCUSSION...MAS
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MAS
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