427
FXUS62 KILM 160707
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
307 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED. STORM COVERAGE LOOKING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT TODAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL AROUND COMBINED WITH
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1)THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...THOUGH SLIGHTLY FLATTENING IN AMPLITUDE
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THOUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION AND RETROGRESSION THEREAFTER.
HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL IN ADVISORY REALM SAVE FOR CAPE FEAR REGION
WHICH WILL SEE THE FRONT LIFT THROUGH BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE
DAY. A HEALTHY PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BOLSTERING THE WARMTH WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING AN IMPRESSIVE
24C...75F AT A MILE ELEVATION! AT FIRST MONDAY SEEMED A CERTAINTY
FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH BUT ONE POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
HAS CAUSED US AND NEIGHBORING WFOS TO HOLD OFF. THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY STEEP HYDROLAPSE RATES THAT ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEWPOINTS COULD DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON IN VERY DEEP MIXING. THIS UNCERTAINTY
WILL REPEAT ITSELF ON TUESDAY WHICH OTHERWISE MAY BE ANOTHER
CANDIDATE FOR HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY BOTH DAYS THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOWS SOME PVA-
INDUCED CONVECTION THAT COULD DISRUPT THE MID AUGUST SUNSHINE.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AFTER SOME PRE-DAWN LOW STRATUS AND FOG BURN OFF EXPECT GENERALLY
VFR WITH MAINLY CIRRUS BEING THE ONLY CIG. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THOUGH A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HEATING WINDOW. WITH THE FRONT STILL AROUND AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES POSSIBLY LINGERING FROM YESTERDAY STORM COVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOW AND PROB 30S WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STORMS COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... FRONT BOTH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
DISSIPATES TODAY ALLOWING FOR GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN. WIND
WAVES RATHER MINIMAL AND SE SWELL ENERGY NOT REALLY ARRIVING UNTIL
TUESDAY. FOR MARINERS THIS WILL ONLY REPRESENT A SUBTLE CHANGE IN
THE 2-3 FT DOMINANT WAVE FORECAST AS THE 3 FOOTERS WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-109-110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB
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