126
FXUS62 KILM 161805
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS. KEY MESSAGE ADJUSTED FOR
TIMING BUT OVERALL MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME.
KEY MESSAGES
1)THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...THOUGH SLIGHTLY FLATTENING IN AMPLITUDE
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THOUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION AND RETROGRESSION THEREAFTER.
A HEALTHY PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOLSTERING THE
WARMTH. DEPENDING ON PHASING OF DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES AND PERHAPS 110
DEGREES LOOK POSSIBLE. A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE
MIXING DOWN OF LOWER DEWPOINTS WITH HEATING AS MIXING DEPTHS LOOK
FAIRLY DEEP. FOR NOW, HAVE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY TO GIVE LATER
SHIFTS TIME TO GET BETTER CLARITY ON THIS. EITHER WAY, MONDAY WILL
BE HOT. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL REPEAT ITSELF ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MAINTAINED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ROUGHLY 18Z-24Z , AS A LINGERING
FRONT AND SEA BREEZE SPARK CONVECTION. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT POTENTIAL AT INDIVIDUAL SITES TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
STORMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON IN
SEA BREEZE AREAS IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BENIGN OUTSIDE
CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-109-110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...31
KEY MESSAGES...31
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
MARINE...31
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