828
FXUS62 KILM 170041
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
841 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1)THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...THOUGH SLIGHTLY FLATTENING IN AMPLITUDE
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THOUGH
MONDAY WITH SOME SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION AND RETROGRESSION THEREAFTER.
A HEALTHY PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOLSTERING THE
WARMTH. DEPENDING ON PHASING OF DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES AND PERHAPS 110
DEGREES LOOK POSSIBLE. A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE
MIXING DOWN OF LOWER DEWPOINTS WITH HEATING AS MIXING DEPTHS LOOK
FAIRLY DEEP. FOR NOW, HAVE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY TO GIVE LATER
SHIFTS TIME TO GET BETTER CLARITY ON THIS. EITHER WAY, MONDAY WILL
BE HOT. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL REPEAT ITSELF ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
06Z ONWARDS THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW
STRATUS, MAINLY AT KILM/KLBT/KFLO. CIGS/VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
FARTHER THAN MVFR BUT THE 06Z ISSUANCE MIGHT HAVE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THAT. INTO MONDAY DRIER AIR SHOULD SERVE TO
SEQUESTER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T
BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR WHICH
TERMINALS COULD BE IMPACTED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
STORMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... OVERALL EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON IN
SEA BREEZE AREAS IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BENIGN OUTSIDE
CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ILM
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