363
FXUS62 KILM 170638
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
238 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING/WATCH NOW IN EFFECT
FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY/TOMORROW, RESPECTIVELY.
KEY MESSAGES
1)THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LIKELY
PEAKING TODAY AND TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LIKELY
PEAKING TODAY AND TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...THOUGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OF LOW AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
HEIGHTS REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 590 DAM. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
20-23C RANGE AND AT LEAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FOCUS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OF 582 DAM ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST. PAIR THIS WITH A CONTINUATION OF HUMID
CONDITIONS AND TODAY/TOMORROW COULD WIND UP BEING THE HOTTEST
FEELING DAYS OF THE SUMMER, WITH TWO MAIN CAVEATS. THOSE CAVEATS
ARE THE POTENTIAL MIXING DOWN OF LOWER DEWPOINTS YIELDING LOWER
HI VALUES AND THE UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FOR NOW WE
HAVE A DRY FORECAST BOTH DAYS WITH BOTH MID LEVEL AND SUB-CLOUD
DRY AIR NOTED IN SOUNDINGS. HAVE RAISED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
FOR EASTERN ZONES AND HEAT ADVISORY FOR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES
WHERE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING APPEARS MOST LIKELY. TUESDAY LOOKS
TO PLAY OUT SIMILARLY SO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH RAISED FOR THE
SAME COUNTIES AS TODAYS WARNING (ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED INLAND
TUESDAY BUT DIDN'T FEEL THE NEED FOR SO MANY HEADLINES AND
PREFER TO KEEP ADVISORIES FIRST TWO PERIODS OR SO).
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME LIGHT PREDAWN FOG. SOME GUIDANCE HAS LOWER VSBY AT LBT AND EVEN
SOME LOW CIGS BUT SINCE MOST OF THE RAIN YESTERDAY MISSED THE
AIRFIELD HAVE RELEGATED TO TEMPO.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STORMS COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... OVERALL EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON IN SEA BREEZE AREAS IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY BENIGN OUTSIDE CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME LONGER
PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES FROM THE SE ON TUESDAY BUT WITHOUT ANY REAL
INCREASE IN DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ096-099-105>110.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ096-099-105>110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB
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