030
FXUS62 KILM 180005
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
805 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR 8/17 HAVE EXPIRED
AS OF 8PM. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH END OF THE
WEEK.
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUES THIS
WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS EACH DAY
THROUGH (AT LEAST) THURSDAY. A DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY - WILL MOSTLY BE A WIND
SHIFT AT THE SURFACE AS AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT THAT
DIFFERENT THAN IN FRONT. SLIGHT TROUGHING WITH THE FRONT WILL
AID IN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER INLAND TUESDAY COMPARED TO
TODAY, AND LATEST FORECAST HAS HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (HEAT
INDICES >= 105F) FOR INLAND COUNTIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CONDITIONS (HEAT INDICES >=110F) FOR COASTAL COUNTIES TOMORROW.
BRIEF RELIEF MAY BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR CAPE
FEAR REGION, AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND AIDS IN
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE
COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE DISSIPATING. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
US FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWING DOWN, WITH SEVERAL
WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR. LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO NW WINDS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BE MORE WESTERLY
INLAND WITH A SEA BREEZE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS TURNING WINDS OUT
OF THE S/SW ~8-10 KTS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR IMPACTS
TO TERMINALS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
STORMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS INTO TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BEFORE
STALLING NEAR THE COAST. STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS MORE
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS REDEVELOP FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS LINGER IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 4 FOOTERS ENTERING THE 20-60NM
WATERS SATURDAY, COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND SE SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ099-
105>110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ039-
054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...VAO
DISCUSSION...VAO
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...VAO
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