294
FXUS62 KILM 181059
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
659 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1)DANGEROUS HEAT TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS HEAT TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE PATTERN REMAINS RATHER STATIC WITH VERY HIGH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESS VALUES IN PLACE. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS WILL START TO
RISE IN THE WEST AND SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EAST BUT NOT OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH FOR ANY HEAT- BREAKING
FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY WILL
BRING NO APPRECIABLE ADVECTION (THOUGH WEDNESDAY'S PERIOD OF
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW COULD TEMPER HIGHS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
BEACHES). BUT OTHERWISE:
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY.
THESE READINGS PAIRED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
OCCASIONALLY LOW 80S WILL NECESSITATE HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES EACH
DAY. THE ONLY NUANCE WILL BE WHICH DAYS WILL BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS
DOWN OVER INLAND ZONES WHERE AN ADVISORY WILL BE SUFFICIENT (HI
VALUES OF 105-109) AND HOW MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA WILL REQUITE A
WARNING (HI VALUES OF 110 OR HIGHER). THE DIFFERENCES WILL BE VERY
MINOR AND WWA MAPS SHOWING HEADLINES WILL LIKELY LOOK VERY MUCH LIKE
BOTH TODAY AND YESTERDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY PASSING SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEST RELATIVE CHANCE FOR A IFR TO LIFR VIS RESTRICTION IS AT
KILM, LEADING TO A PROB30 THERE WHILE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CUMULUS BETWEEN 5-7KFT THIS
AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING THIS EVENING, THEN PASSING HIGH CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT. A LOW RISK FOR MVFR MIST EXISTS OVERNIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STORMS COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY NOT UNTIL
FRIDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TODAY TURNING SW FLOW TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER A MORE TYPICAL SW FLOW RETURNS AS THE
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY TAME EVEN BY
LATE SUMMER STANDARDS. THE APPROACH OF A FRONT COULD LEAD TO A
SLIGHT INC IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY. A SE SWELL WILL BE COINCIDENT
WITH THE WIND WAVES THROUGH THE DURATION.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ087-096.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...MBB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MBB
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