710
FXUS62 KILM 252327
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
727 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT,
FOCUSING IN PARTICULARLY ON THE PEE DEE REGION. RECENT NEAR-
TERM ENSEMBLES POINT TO THE KINGSTREE-FLORENCE-DARLINGTON AREA
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 9 AM WEDNESDAY. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY LATER IN THE
WEEK A STRONGER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM BRINGS AN EVER INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONAL VALUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE CAPE FEAR AREA ENJOYED A VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND REASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS
THE LINGERING FRONT PUSHED A BIT OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH
CONVECTION COMING BACK INTO PLAY. BROAD TROUGHING/HEIGHT FALLS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME
DRYING NOTED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TROUGHING IS
REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING BUT IF A FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA IT
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. UNREMARKABLE TRENDS FOR
TEMPERATURES AS THEY SHOULD STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL VALUES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BIGGEST AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS CEILINGS LATE. THIS POTENTIAL
IS LOW AT KILM, KCRE AND KLBT, BUT MODERATE AT KFLO AFTER 09Z.
ANY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KFLO SHOULD CLEAR UP AROUND 13Z.
ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
THAT MAY YIELD SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IMPACTS (MAINLY IN VISIBILITY) IS
MODERATE AND COULD BEGIN AT KCRE AND KMYR AS EARLY AS 12Z,
SHIFTING NORTH TO INCLUDE KILM AFTER 15Z. INLAND AIRPORTS HAVE A
LOWER, BUT NOT ZERO, POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AS WELL.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE
AREA AS WELL IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UNUSUAL NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS
TODAY WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
THAT PUSHED OFFSHORE WILL MAKE A RETURN VISIT. FROM THERE THE
STANDARD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND TEN KNOTS WILL TAKE UP
RESIDENCE AGAIN. BY LATER IN THE WEEK WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS AND STAND A BETTER SHOT AT BEING DISTORTED BY
CONVECTION.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...SHK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page