507
FXUS62 KILM 260637
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
237 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AS WE APPROACH 3 AM EDT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY ON THE RISE AS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE A
WET ONE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY ON THE RISE AS AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
BE A WET ONE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED
OFFSHORE OF LOWCOUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, AND ARE SLOWLY
CREEPING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GRAND STRAND REGION. MAY HAVE
SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SCRAPE THE COASTAL
AREAS OF GEORGETOWN AND HORRY COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
BY MIDDAY, THE SAME MAY OCCUR AROUND THE WILMINGTON AREA.
MEANWHILE, THE SEABREEZE WILL TRY TO BRING ABOUT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAY
STRUGGLE WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE. GRAND STRAND
REGION MIGHT HAVE SOME OF THE BETTER CHANCES HERE, BEING CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT STARTS TO MAKE AN EARNEST MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
MAINLAND LATE TONIGHT, WHERE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR DEEP SW FLOW TO BRING
IN RICH GULF MOISTURE, ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAINY PERIOD WITHIN THIS WINDOW. TROUGH GETS
PUSHED OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY, THANKS TO A RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THIS
DECREASES THE RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TYPICAL
SEABREEZE CONVECTION REMAINS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THERE'S A BIT LESS GROUND
FOG THAN THERE WAS THIS TIME LAST NIGHT, BUT STILL REMAINS A
POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR KFLO IN PARTICULAR. LEFT IN A
TEMPO GROUP FROM 10-13Z FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR FOG OR LOW
STRATUS. HONESTLY NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THIS IDEA, BUT THERE'S
JUST ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF THE POSSIBILITY TO LEAVE IT IN THERE.
WHATEVER FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 13Z OR SO.
COASTAL SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF SC LOWCOUNTRY ARE GRADUALLY MOVING
NORTHWARD, AND MAY TRY TO SCRAPE ALONG KCRE AND KMYR BY 12-16Z
THIS MORNING, AND EVEN PERHAPS UP TO KILM BY 15-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THREW IN PROB30 GROUPS HERE TO SHOW MINOR MVFR
RESTRICTIONS UNDER SHRA. SEABREEZE AT THE COAST BRINGS SE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS GO CALM AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE
AREA AS WELL IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
MAY COME DOWN A BIT BY SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...ESE WINDS VEER TO THE SSW TO SW BY TONIGHT, AND
STAY THERE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE A
BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT NEVER GET
ABOVE A MODERATE BREEZE. 1-2 FT SEAS INCREASE TO 2-4 FT WITH THE
GRADIENT WIND INCREASE, BUT IMPROVE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY. WINDS
A BIT MORE VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT STICK TO
A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE. SEAS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO 1-2 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB
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