474
FXUS62 KILM 260917
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
517 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY ON THE RISE AS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE A
WET ONE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY ON THE RISE AS AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL
BE A WET ONE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED
OFFSHORE OF LOWCOUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, AND ARE SLOWLY
CREEPING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GRAND STRAND REGION. MAY HAVE
SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SCRAPE THE COASTAL
AREAS OF GEORGETOWN AND HORRY COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
BY MIDDAY, THE SAME MAY OCCUR AROUND THE WILMINGTON AREA.
MEANWHILE, THE SEABREEZE WILL TRY TO BRING ABOUT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION JUST INLAND OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAY
STRUGGLE WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE. GRAND STRAND
REGION MIGHT HAVE SOME OF THE BETTER CHANCES HERE, BEING CLOSER
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT STARTS TO MAKE AN EARNEST MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
MAINLAND LATE TONIGHT, WHERE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR DEEP SW FLOW TO BRING
IN RICH GULF MOISTURE, ALONG WITH INCREASED FORCING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAINY PERIOD WITHIN THIS WINDOW. TROUGH GETS
PUSHED OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY, THANKS TO A RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THIS
DECREASES THE RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TYPICAL
SEABREEZE CONVECTION REMAINS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANY FOG FORMING INLAND SHOULD BE CLEARED UP AROUND THE START OF
THE PERIOD, SO DON'T HAVE IT IN TAFS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POPPING UP NEAR THE MYRTLES BUT PREDICTABILITY FOR RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD THESE MOVE ONSHORE IS LOW AND HASN'T BEEN PUT IN THE
TAFS. PROB30S ARE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD WITH THE SEA
BREEZE DRIVING STORMS INTO THE EVENING. COASTAL TERMINALS LOOK
TO HAVE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IMPACTING THEM ONWARDS
FROM 00Z AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES, BUT HAVE ONLY PUT PROB30S
IN FOR LATER OVERNIGHT AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER. EXPECT
TIMING FOR THIS TO CHANGE. CONFIDENCE ON ANY FOG INLAND IS LOW.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE
AREA AS WELL IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
MAY COME DOWN A BIT BY SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...ESE WINDS VEER TO THE SSW TO SW BY TONIGHT, AND
STAY THERE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE A
BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT NEVER GET
ABOVE A MODERATE BREEZE. 1-2 FT SEAS INCREASE TO 2-4 FT WITH THE
GRADIENT WIND INCREASE, BUT IMPROVE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY. WINDS
A BIT MORE VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT STICK TO
A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE. SEAS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO 1-2 FT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...IGB
DISCUSSION...IGB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...IGB
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