511
FXUS62 KILM 262327
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
727 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOCUS ON OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIMITED TO
COASTAL COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE WHERE THE LATEST HRRR AND RRFS
RUNS SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN THE 03-07Z
WINDOW. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SURFACE-BASED OFFSHORE BUT MAINLY
ELEVATED INLAND WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BECOME TOO
COOL. STORM MOTION TOWARD THE NNE WOULD FAVOR THE CAPE FEAR AREA
HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY ON THE RISE AS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE A
WET ONE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT THAT FINALLY PUSHED ACROSS THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF NICE LATE SUMMER
DAYS/PERIODS IS NOW ON THE MOVE NORTH AGAIN. THIS WHEN COMBINED
WITH A GATHERING MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
INCREASE RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SEEM TO TEAM UP WHEN SPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT SOME GUIDANCE IS NOW
ADVERTISING A BRIEF CLEAN COLD PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
FEW DAYS OF DRIER CONDITIONS. IF THIS WERE TO TAKE PLACE HEAT
HEADLINES MAY WANDER BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS HIGHS
STUBBORNLY WANT TO RETURN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE ARE TWO MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS COMING UP OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION: HIGH-RES MODELS PAINT A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINE OVERNIGHT AND MOVE NORTHWARD, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN RAIN TO KMYR, KCRE, AND KILM. THIS
POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 03-04Z, PEAKING AROUND 06Z AT
KILM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER
DAYBREAK THURSDAY DRIVEN BY SOLAR HEATING. LOW TO MODERATE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS EXISTS AT ALL LOCAL AIRPORTS,
PREFERENTIALLY PRIOR TO 17Z ALONG THE COAST AND AFTER 17Z
INLAND.
LOW STRATUS: MODELS ARE EVEN MORE INSISTENT THAN LAST NIGHT THAT
LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP INLAND LATE TONIGHT AFTER 09-10Z.
THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS MODERATE AT KFLO AND LOW AT KLBT. ANY
FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CLEAR UP AROUND 13Z WITH THE
RISING SUN.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE
AREA AS WELL IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
MAY COME DOWN A BIT BY SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT/MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT CLEAN
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT LEADING TO A BRIEF NE FLOW AFTER
AFTER ALL THE CALENDAR IS LATE AUGUST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
10-15 KNOTS AND THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY THREAT OF
HEADLINES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...SHK
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