233
FXUS62 KILM 270723
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY ON THE RISE AS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND NORTH THROUGH TODAY.
2) SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY ON THE RISE AS AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND AND NORTH THROUGH
TODAY.
A COLD FRONT THAT FINALLY CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF NICE LATE SUMMER
DAYS/PERIODS IS NOW ON THE MOVE NORTH AGAIN. THIS WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY FEED OF MOISTURE BACK WITH PCP WATER VALUES INCREASING
FROM LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES TO BACK OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN S-SW FLOW WILL EXIST AS
MID TO UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST WEST OF AREA. THE STRONGEST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING, BUT
SHOULD PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SOME STRONGER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH AND AND EAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN/CONVECTION CHANCES
THROUGH ESSENTIALLY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHADE MOST OF
OUR AREA IN MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT SOME GUIDANCE IS
NOW ADVERTISING A BRIEF CLEAN COLD PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A FEW DAYS OF DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD BRING BACK INCREASED
SUNSHINE AND POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES AS 594DAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THROUGH THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BRINGING
INCREASING CHC TO COASTAL TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN RAIN TO
KMYR, KCRE, AND KILM. LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS
EXISTS AT ALL LOCAL AIRPORTS, MAINLY PRIOR TO 17Z ALONG THE
COAST AND AFTER 17Z INLAND.
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOW STRATUS OR FOG TO DEVELOP INLAND
MAINLY AFTER 09-10Z. ANY FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
CLEAR UP AROUND 13Z WITH THE RISING SUN.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE
AREA AS WELL IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
MAY COME DOWN A BIT BY SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT/MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE A SOMEWHAT CLEAN
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A BRIEF NE FLOW.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS AND THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
ANY THREAT OF HEADLINES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY IN SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND THROUGH FRI, BUT OVERALL
EXPECT SEAS 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH MON.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...SHK/RGZ
DISCUSSION...SHK/RGZ
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...SHK/RGZ
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