274
FXUS62 KILM 271828
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
228 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING UNSETTLED
WEATHER, POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, AND TO BEGIN FOCUSING ON THE
NEXT ROUND OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK. THE MARINE SECTION
WAS ALSO UPDATED AND THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A FEW ROUNDS OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA AS WELL, AND H3 RRQ WOULD AID
CONVECTION. THE HIGH PWATS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES, AND THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT ERO
FRIDAY. PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION PLOTS SHOW A POTENTIAL HIGH
END RANGE OF 2 TO 6+ INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
BUT AT THIS TIME THE THE MORE EXTREME AMOUNTS ARE VERY
LOCALIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. THE FORECAST AREA MAY
OBSERVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HEAT, COUPLED WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY,
MAY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF AREA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORIES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT TIMES DUE TO
PASSING SHRA/TSRA. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEAT THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOME STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY AT
KFLO AND KLBT. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH CONVECTION AT TIMES
DURING FRIDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL, DIURNALLY ENHANCED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (LESSER CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY).
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...S-SWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE INLAND
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE COAST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE.
WITH THE OLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF
S-SWLY WINDS POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR
LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELLS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...SRP
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